Andrew Abraham

andy-0101 My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I adhere to the philosophy of trend following. Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets me apart from other traders is that I am not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk I will have to tolerate to achieve my goals.

Contact Details

If you are interested in contacting for speaking engagements. Please email me at Andrabr9@gmail.com or call 954 903 0638.

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Risk Warning

Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk. The evaluations of futures and commodities may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, that you will profit, or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible, where projections of future conditions are attempted.

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Trend Following is About Patience

Nothing really has to happen when we trade. Profits do not come easily. Most of the time nothing happens and markets just zig zag. In these zig zag periods one has to apply the golden rule of trading

Patience

Trading is a marathon. Not a get rich quick. Just look at the US Stock market this year. Zig zagging between support and resistance. We have gone through sharp selloffs and sharp rebounds. It takes patience and a trading plan to survive this tough market. BTW…It is tough for both bulls and bears.

The market rallied for a second session today with all the major averages showing solid gains. The Nasdaq rose .44% while the SPY was higher by .73%. Both closed near their intraday highs, a sign of strength. Volume was lower across the board. But we are still not trending, rather chopping.

It is a difficult market to make progress in unless you are a very good short term trader. You need to know exactly the type of trader you are or simply have the patience not to play. Most money is made in the beginning of a Bull market after a sharp Bear market. We have not had one of those for 6 years plus.

Do you have the patience to not trade…Sometimes this is the best trade

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The Dearth of Deflation

Anyone who is in the stock market knows how hard this year has been. Bears are getting chopped up as well as Bulls. Maybe not the buy and holders but their day might come in the case of a severe stock market crash. As I trade stocks and mostly commodities I have not seen a period like this virtually forever. The only trends in commodities are down trends. Down Trends are deflation. Just to point out deflation was one of the key issues of the Great Depression. No I am not making outrageous speculations of where any market is going however deflation is very concerning. All one has to do is look at several charts. One needs a complete trading plan to survive in this environment. Do you have one?

copper

crude

gold

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NASD NEW HIGH FAKEOUT $QQQ $SPY Bull Trap

The breakout into new high ground on the Nasdaq was clearly a fake out or a Bull Trap. I know many traders that bought into this and spoke about a Super Bull Cycle. Maybe they will be right however my game plan is defense. With China down 8% in one day, volatility like that can chew up a portfolio rather quickly.

On our US Markets…major supports are close to being violated. Trend lines from 2009 and key moving averages. The SPX closed just above it’s 200dma while the COMPQ broke below it’s 50dma. The market is looking inherently weak. Bull markets do not last forever. Just the hope of non experienced investors. They hope the prices they paid for stocks will come back….

I would not suggest trying to go short the market as there have been many rebounds when it looked like things would really get going on the downside. The sidelines are fine for me right now.

I hope you have a trading plan to stay out of BIG trouble…

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Free Kindle Book Essential Factors for Being a Success Stock Trader

This weekend offering free my book..

Essential Factors for Being a Success stock Trader
Just go to Amazon Kindle and get for free…

kindle

http://www.amazon.com/Essential-Factors-Success-Trader-Following-ebook/dp/B00BQ7WUL8/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1437711679&sr=8-1&keywords=ASIN%3A+B00BQ7WUL8

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The Difference of Making Money in the Stock Market & Gold Market $SPY #GLD

I recently had a call from a very opinionated so called investor. He explained to me every reason that the stock market will crash and gold will go up to $5,000. He further explained what is happening now is only short term that he is losing money.

He clearly did not understand the concept of trend following and not having an opinion in the stock market or gold market.

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2015 Was a Tough Year for Most Stocks Except $PANW

2015 Was a choppy market for most stocks. Many stocks broke out however they failed. With that said…
Palo Alto and Sketchers trended wonderfully. Combine fundamental and technical studies in order to succeed.

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Will This Recent Stock Market Breakout Have Legs

So many breakouts over the last several months have failed in the leading stocks. The goal we adhere to is buying the strongest stocks when the market is healthy. Will we see a replay of the last time the Nasdaq made new highs? The pundits simply point to Google as proof of a Super Bull cycle.

On the positive side, volume in the stock market was higher across all indexes Friday. However volume is expected to be higher on an expiration day. Leading stocks showed some mixed performance as well but were overall stronger on the session. Time will tell…However I believe prudence should be adhered to. I believe that it probably a good idea to position size a bit more carefully and not get carried away by getting to heavily invested. It is better to make less money if the move proves to have legs.

My two cents…Trading in the stock is a marathon. There are times to be more aggressive and less aggressive.

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Why Complicate Your Trading in the Stock Market?

It seems to be a very common theme I have when I teach and mentor. Many are looking for new indicators or methods. After their first shock on his simple my layout is they start to realize their mistakes.

The reason students look for these answers is they want to avoid losses. Can not happen. There will always be losses. On my screen I have volume, two moving averages and I color code my bars just for a little eye candy. That is it…Buy signals are based on simple X day breakouts or patterns which I have shared before…Want to see breakouts with volume. This shows conviction.

Stops are based on profit targets and when I have great conviction with a stock I trail it with both he 10 day and 50 day moving averages…That is it…Not rocket science…My selection of stocks is different than the norm. I want to buy the strongest stocks when the market is healthy…

Why complicate your trading in the stock market?

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Current 50 Day Moving Average

The 50 day moving average is serving as resistance for both the index and their relative strength lines. It would be a very positive sign if they could clear this important moving average with some conviction. The market is trying to rally after it’s recent decline. How far this rally attempt goes and weather or not it turns into something worthwhile?

My confidence level only will return if we can take out the prior highs on both the SP 500 and QQQ

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Want to Make 13.3% In the Stock Market? It might just be possible

Well according to Marty Zweig and Ned Davis Research it might just be possible…

The buy and sell signals are based upon the Value Line Composite Geometric Index.

For the 30 year period 1965-1995, the 4% rule return gave 13.3% per year while the buy-and-hold return was 3.2% per year.

These are not my words but the research.However I have incorporated their work into my models and include moving averages.

qqq

vlaueline

I am still not on a buy…Try out these models and let me know what you think

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