Andrew Abraham

andy-0101 My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I adhere to the philosophy of trend following. Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets me apart from other traders is that I am not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk I will have to tolerate to achieve my goals.

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If you are interested in contacting for speaking engagements. Please email me at Andrabr9@gmail.com or call 954 903 0638.

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Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk. The evaluations of futures and commodities may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, that you will profit, or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible, where projections of future conditions are attempted.

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Printing massive amounts of money, or in the Fed’s case refusing to tighten?

Why are Stocks Moving?

Printing massive amounts of money, or in the Fed’s case refusing to tighten?

As obvious as the tech crash in 2000 or the housing bubble…are bells ringing in your ears why stocks are moving. We are trend followers and we all know that stocks rally due to liquidity…we saw what happened when the FED raised interest rates ever so slightly…

The charts of the major averages are looking better as more retake their line of demaraction…200 day moving average. However the problem is that most of the gains are coming from defensive names and beaten down stocks or even Gold shares. The are more breakouts showing up, but they are not producing worthwhile gains. Most are stalling after they break out. Even early buys are not doing much.

So what do you do?

Simple solution….try to trade ETFs on the indexes….or even leveraged ones…this is your decision as it has to be applicable to your rules and risk…

This is one of the most difficult market to make progress in that I have ever seen as most or all of the rules that have worked for decades are being distorted by political comments or central bank shenanigans…

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Trend Following Breakout Example $MXL

Yesterdays stock market session was favorable. All eyes were on the FED announcement. When it came out saying there would be no rate hike now and probably not for a while the market rallied. The major averages finished with solid gains of .75% for the QQQ and .56% for the SPY.
Finally the SPY broke convincingly above it’s 200 day moving average. Hopefully it will be able to hold this moving average. The 200 day has been the primary resistance on it’s chart. There were some breakouts today such as MXL, but we are still not seeing strong gains in quality growth stocks. Without this action the durability of this rally is still suspect. The strongest sectors were the semiconductors. Maxlinear is a leading stock now in a leading sector. The fundamentals are extremely strong…actually triple digits…and now we had a break out…In a healthy market this is what one needs to find…

mxl

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Is the Bull Market in the Stock Market Back?

We have had a strong rally.These strong rallies can also be a retracement in a bear market. Hard to tell until time has passed. The fact however is that the indexes have taken out the 200 day moving averages. If they can hold these moving averages this is very constructive and gives proof to this rally.

The issues however are that the rally has been on weak volume. You want to see conviction. You want to see institutions participating. Some exposure is warranted depending on your risk profile and your own judgement….however there are not many High growth quality stocks breaking out…

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Oil Stock Rebound?

As we all know most oil stocks have been clobbered….actually so have Biotech stocks and even the index….The oil stocks are seeing some life for the first time in a long time. They seem to be breaking out…however today crude is trading down.

Looking at these on a retracement trade -trend following
crude1

crude2

crude4

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Jesse Liverpool Milestone Trades- Trend Following

Jesse Livermore had a saying about milestone marks in the stock market. TSLA..NFLX are around these milestones and they might be turning over. They ran up on the highest volume and now knocking at the door of the 50 day moving average. This is an example of a retracement trade in Trend following…

What do you think?
nflx

amzn

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Overbought time on the Stock Market & QQQ

We are at the point that a clear direction of the stock market might be at hand. We are slightly below the 200 day moving average and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement…

Today should be an interesting day!!!

sp1

sp4

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What You Must Do To Survive In Trend Following

I want to share with my readers Traders Unplugged. Every aspiring and even successful trader needs to work on themselves and learning is constant. In this episode of Traders Unplugged is Tushar Chande. I remember using his indicators almost more than 20 years ago…

tp1

Tushar Chande has stated
“You have to be an optimist in this business to survive, you have to bring an original point of view, why you want to do it in a certain way and you need to be able to explain to people in a way that makes sense to them why you are doing what you are doing”

Tushar Chande, is the Co-Founder and Head of Research at Rho Asset Management. Tushar is also the author of a number of books on the topic of how to design rule based trading systems as well as having been actively trading these systems for more than 20 years.

Click here to hear the interview with Tushar Chande.

trp2

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Time to Worry – Stock Market Complacency?

The good news is that the stock indices have taken out the 50 day moving averages, yet we are still below the 200 day moving average. The VIX is retreating like a wounded solider, however economically and fundamentally many charts do not look well. This stock market will be soon having another birthday. 7 Years and one of the longer bull markets. However in the following charts things do not seem to be looking all that healthy….I received this email this morning with all types of economic charts….you decide and let me know…

credit to Melissinos Trading

mik7

mik87

mik876

mik5677

mike1

mike2

mike3

mike4

mike5

mike67

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Consecutive Losses and Draw downs in Trend Following

Most traders and those new to trend following have no idea that trend following is simply playing probabilities…They expect to have trades work from the onset. However when they have consecutive loses or losing streak most amateur traders either give up or try a different trading strategy. They bop from strategy to strategy and lose more money. If you know to expect consecutive losses then you will be more likely to handle those losses.

As Ed Seykota has stated the only way to avoid draw downs or losses is not trade. When one tries to avoid losses he complicates his methodology ( if he has one). The way to accept loses is to take into consideration low risk per trade. This way makes losses more palatable or accepting.

Put into greater context, in trend following most trades only work 35% of the time or slightly better. However as they say ( Jerry Parker famous turtle trend follower) ” One trade can pay for them all”

Accept your losses in trend following…

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Is Trend Following this Market Worth It?

The SPY fell below it’s line of demarcation as I call it….the 50day moving average after regaining it last Thursday. The DOW also lost it’s 50day moving average today. This moving average is the most important thing on the chart right now and the fact that the SPY couldn’t hold it and the QQQ never even overcame it is concerning. The final determining factor in the success or failure of any rally is how quality stocks act, can you make any money. Right now the answer is no. A very small number of stocks are producing single digit gains but most are either going nowhere or rolling over.

Is Trend Following this Market Worth the Risks?

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