Andrew Abraham

andy-0101 My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I adhere to the philosophy of trend following. Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets me apart from other traders is that I am not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk I will have to tolerate to achieve my goals.

Contact Details

If you are interested in contacting for speaking engagements. Please email me at Andrabr9@gmail.com or call 954 903 0638.

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Risk Warning

Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk. The evaluations of futures and commodities may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, that you will profit, or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible, where projections of future conditions are attempted.

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Contrarian Trend Following Concepts

Trend Following is based on Break out trades and Trend Retracement trades. In this Metastock webinar I discuss contrarian trend following concepts. I first started trend following 18 years ago. I wanted to know who was succeeding and what they were doing. My broker told me the most successful client of his company was a dentist. He was not a Harvard graduate nor a partner in Morgan Stanley. Yes, he was a dentist! He invested in a robust trend following concept $200,000 dollars in 1979. He let that money compound over time. Today he has pulled out over $12,000,000 over the years and has a $5,000,000 trading account as well as accounts for his children.
The dentist was the exception. Most clients of the brokerage did not make money. Most clients actually lost money. The difference between the majority of the clients that lost money and the Dentist was he had a trading plan with risk management & he followed it with patience & discipline. Even with his plan he always had numerous loses, went through drawdowns and even long periods of time in which he did not make money. However he did not ever give up or start to look for a new methodology.
He did not have any magical Holy Grail formula. He is a trend follower who had a simple robust methodology and more importantly knew how to properly condition his thought processes to get through all the tough drawdowns and long periods that he did not make money.

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Brexit rally -Relief Rally

Nothing like a news or emotional rally. We were below key moving averages and pow….
The market gapped higher at the open today following a strong rally in Europe. A poll came out yesterday showing the remain vote in England is winning and fears that they would leave the EU lessened. This may take some of the uncertainty away from Thursday’s vote, unless the vote is to leave

Trend followers read the writing on the wall today. The stock indexes closed at or near their intraday trading lows, a sign that some market participants were selling into the rally. This is not what you want to see for the hope for an old tired bull market to wake up again.

Brexit and today’s market action prove even more so the need for trading rules. However with these trading rules, they will not mitigate whipsaws and trades that don’t work. I can tell you from personal experience. Fasten seat belts…the fun is beginning this week…

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Nasdaq Trend Following

When Trend Following we use moving averages….Moving averages will keep you on the right side of the market. The reality has been a very choppy and sloppy period full of whipsaws. Not overly conducive for profit generation.

These moving averages are now resistance and the fact that the index broke below them is a Big red flag. The major averages made a run at old highs and were turned back. Unless the market can rally back and take out these old highs with some conviction there will likely be lower prices ahead.

My proprietary metastock indicator is now again on a sell…We have seen lower highs and now below both the 50 day moving average and 200 moving averages…This is the 4th time since last year. In general falling below a 200 moving average signifies severe weakness…however this is an old tired bull who does not want to die….Believe anything can happen…trade accordingly….

Nasdaq Trend Following approach

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Believing Anything Can Happen When Trend Following Gold

Unfortunately too many trade their opinions. They might believe the word is ending and think they can just buy gold or short the stock market. Trading Opinions are DANGEROUS!!

Believing anything can happen will protect your hard earned money. I want to share a trade that I am in. I usually do not look during the day at quotes. However I had a window open and noticed Gold was up big time. As I have been long GDX, I thought it would be nice for GDX ( GOlD Miners) to move up.

However later at the close Gold did not do so well…..This morning gold is down further. I have learned over the long years that anything can and will happen…this is why I trade with a complete trading plan.

Question is- Do you have a trading plan??

GDX

gold

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE (“FOREX”) IS SUBSTANTIAL.

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Why Do so Many Fail In Trading

Wow….this really can be a long list….The below are specific issues…
1. Realize trading is a commitment….
2. Trend following and trading is not a get rich quick- Temper your expectations
3. Follow a trading plan. Do not deviate.
4. Know what your risk is before putting on a trade
5. Under trade
6. Do not chase trades
7. Watch your correlation between positions
8. Monitor your daily complete risk
9. Draw downs that seem to go on forever do end
10. Take into consideration that trend following is a marathon
11. Only trade with money you can afford to lose
12. Trade with the trend – not against it
13. Truly internalize anything can and will happen
14. You do not need a million strategies or indicators….
15. Less is more when trading and trend following

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Trend Following Realities

I have not been writing about trend following for sometime. Been very busy teaching and doing my own trading. It has left me to be somewhat introspective. So many of the students I have taught seem to be seeking ways not to lose money or trying to prevent losses…They seem to want to jump to idea after idea. This is not a way to succeed in trading. Successful trading is finding a very simple method that matches ones personality…not looking to avoid losses…use proper account sizing methods….use proper risk management and simple let the odds work over time. Some get bored…some look for excitement….but the reality is boring is a way to compound money. If I can assist you in helping develop your own personal trading plan….Please email me…

I can tell you hands down…it is never easy…it is always a challenge and no one really knows the future….
Best

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Metastock Webinar Contrarian Trend Following Break Out Patterns & More

Would like to invite you to a Free Webinar I am giving on Contrarian Trend Following Break Out Patterns

webinar

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Printing massive amounts of money, or in the Fed’s case refusing to tighten?

Why are Stocks Moving?

Printing massive amounts of money, or in the Fed’s case refusing to tighten?

As obvious as the tech crash in 2000 or the housing bubble…are bells ringing in your ears why stocks are moving. We are trend followers and we all know that stocks rally due to liquidity…we saw what happened when the FED raised interest rates ever so slightly…

The charts of the major averages are looking better as more retake their line of demaraction…200 day moving average. However the problem is that most of the gains are coming from defensive names and beaten down stocks or even Gold shares. The are more breakouts showing up, but they are not producing worthwhile gains. Most are stalling after they break out. Even early buys are not doing much.

So what do you do?

Simple solution….try to trade ETFs on the indexes….or even leveraged ones…this is your decision as it has to be applicable to your rules and risk…

This is one of the most difficult market to make progress in that I have ever seen as most or all of the rules that have worked for decades are being distorted by political comments or central bank shenanigans…

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Trend Following Breakout Example $MXL

Yesterdays stock market session was favorable. All eyes were on the FED announcement. When it came out saying there would be no rate hike now and probably not for a while the market rallied. The major averages finished with solid gains of .75% for the QQQ and .56% for the SPY.
Finally the SPY broke convincingly above it’s 200 day moving average. Hopefully it will be able to hold this moving average. The 200 day has been the primary resistance on it’s chart. There were some breakouts today such as MXL, but we are still not seeing strong gains in quality growth stocks. Without this action the durability of this rally is still suspect. The strongest sectors were the semiconductors. Maxlinear is a leading stock now in a leading sector. The fundamentals are extremely strong…actually triple digits…and now we had a break out…In a healthy market this is what one needs to find…

mxl

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Is the Bull Market in the Stock Market Back?

We have had a strong rally.These strong rallies can also be a retracement in a bear market. Hard to tell until time has passed. The fact however is that the indexes have taken out the 200 day moving averages. If they can hold these moving averages this is very constructive and gives proof to this rally.

The issues however are that the rally has been on weak volume. You want to see conviction. You want to see institutions participating. Some exposure is warranted depending on your risk profile and your own judgement….however there are not many High growth quality stocks breaking out…

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