Andrew Abraham

andy-0101 My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I adhere to the philosophy of trend following. Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets me apart from other traders is that I am not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk I will have to tolerate to achieve my goals.

Contact Details

If you are interested in contacting for speaking engagements. Please email me at Andrabr9@gmail.com or call 954 903 0638.

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Risk Warning

Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk. The evaluations of futures and commodities may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, that you will profit, or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible, where projections of future conditions are attempted.

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Gold Going to 10,000- Trend Following #GDX #GOLD

I am sure every newbie investor would love to jump on the gold bandwagon when some guru would state gold is going to 2,000…5,000 or 10,000. These gurus have made calls and some have worked and some have not. The ones who foolishly bought into their calls have lost money. Losing money is one thing, the frustration is worse. When trend following ( which is never easy) I would much prefer to know why I am buying or selling something…gold included. I diminish my frustration to some point by having a plan with thought our rules that are understandable and rather simple to follow. BTW trend following does not have be complicated with zillions of trend following rules. The key for a successful trend follower is to have rules and a routine. Without this you have nothing…but frustration.

Do not get me wrong, it is easy to get frustrated also when you have 10 trades in a row that do not work. This is the reality. I have been there countless times and the only saving grace is I “try” to keep these loses small and allow myself to be available when there are moves….

I have been in both trades GC an GDX…Both are interesting….I have no idea if they will go to X thousand or X dollars…the key is to have a complete trend following plan…

gdx

gold

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE (“FOREX”) IS SUBSTANTIAL.

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Eurekahedge Trend Following Index CTA/managed futures

Eurekahedge is a data base of various investment strategies based in Singapore. Eurekahedge reported stellar results for CTA & managed futures strategies for June. ◾CTA/managed futures funds topped the tables across strategic mandates for June and 1H 2016, up 3.30% and 4.33% respectively. As of 1H 2016, net inflows into the strategy have come in at US$7.2 billion, down from US$24.2 billion over the same period in 2015. This sounds impressive however the last several years have been the hardest for trend following CTAs in the managed futures space. Many have quit as draw downs got worse and extended.

Personally my trading was one of the toughest I ever went through. It is very true the statement…

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE (“FOREX”) IS SUBSTANTIAL.

One needs to have the discipline, fortitude and believe in their trading plan that matches their personality…

Eurekahedge trend following statistics

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE (“FOREX”) IS SUBSTANTIAL.

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PAR Pacific – Sam Zell Value Play

I have to admit Sam Zell is one investor I truly respect & watch. He called the top in real estate prior to the crash in 2007-2008. Today he is seeking assets below replacement cost similar to what he did in the field of real estate in the 1970s & 1980s. Buy when everyone was selling. Buying value.

I believe in being a value trend follower. I recently came up with one of his holdings PARR Pacific.

parr

As you can clearly see this is stock is in a deep down trend. However there is value here according to Sam Zell.

sam2

I am not a knife catcher. I have exact rules in order to try to buy this stock once it turns up…if it turns up. No one is perfect! There are no gurus!

parr4

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Power of Sloping Trend Lines When Trend Following $MTCH

I use sloping trend lines as entries and to confirm the trend. In the case of Match Group $MTCH look at the sloping trend line as it hits all time highs….

mtch

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EBIX Breaking out Trend Following

With the SP 500 at all time highs….we are seeing some stocks break out…
EBIX is one of them

ebix

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All Time High #BLD

All time new highs are things trend followers like to see!!!

bld

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Head and Shoulders Pattern on Crude Oil #USO Oil Stocks

Head and Shoulder patterns are patterns that Trend Followers look for. As much as crude is up today, it questions the rally in many crude stocks. In the below diagram you will see the shoulders and head. I drew a line which was crossed yesterday….

Will be interesting to see where crude stocks go from here…

crude

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Hard to Like Stocks When US Banks & World Banks are Struggling

A picture can say it all. Add in the nose bleed levels of the stock market. There are no bargains virtually in any asset class. Open a newspaper and leading banks in Europe need a bailout such as the 3rd largest bank in Italy…Is it 2007 once again?

banks

Deutsche Bank’s chief economist David Folkerts-Landau has called for a €150bn bailout of European banks, warning Europe is “seriously ill”.

“Europe is seriously ill and needs to address very quickly the existing problems, or face an accident,” he says.

BTW..Stock are near all time highs as they were in 2007 before the crash!!!

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British Pound Going to Parity with US Dollar?

I had this question Could the British Pound Be Going to Parity with US Dollar posed today by a client? Firstly I do not have a crystal ball nor do I give investment advice other than my Commodity Trading advisor client who have signed and agreed to all kinds of disclosures and are aware of the risks of trading commodities and currencies…

We opened a chart of the British Pound and I asked a very simple question…is the trend up..down or sideways….He answered obviously down….

gbp

With him stating it was down….I told him, anything can happen. Anything can happen means the British pound might rally up from this point and to his great dismay it is possible that the British Pound Could Go to Parity with US Dollar.

This is what trend following is…No predictions…just following the trend. Once people internalize this they start their journey of attempting to compound money. Most can not do it. They expect trades to work, and with trend following very few do trend and when they do trend…these people might exit too soon by not having the patience or discipline to let trades work overtime.

The same with investors in CTAS. They want it now. They wan the double digit returns. However most CTAs as well as myself have struggled over the last 5 years. Many famous CTAs threw in the towel. Countless investors bought the 2007 and 2008 highs only to get clobbered in the drawdowns following.

All of this boils down to discipline…expectations..and mostly patience. Clearly a defined trend following plan is needed. Trend Following is never easy…nor is it a weekend course….

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE (“FOREX”) IS SUBSTANTIAL.

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Trend Following August 2007 Redone- #GBP UK Commercial Real Estate

qqq

The stock market had a kind of reversal today which can lead to higher prices in at least the short term. My question are we headed into another August 2007 scenario? We are near all time highs…yet crisis after crisis are coming into focus.

Over the next 160 trading days, the S&P 500 crashed by a further 50%. Total of $10 trillion of market cap was vaporized!!!

The British Pound has gotten hammered. The double whammy of that is if you invested in one of the so called Blue chip Property funds. They gated ( stopped) withdrawals of pension money and personal savings to the tune of 17 billion GBP. Add in the Italian banking crisis ( Italy’s third largest bank Banca Monte dei Paschi Siena)…oh lest I forget the absolute strength of the the leading European Banks!

db

I speak to alot of traders during the day. So many are in denial or can not believe we could encounter a fall in the stock market similar in nature to the Nasdaq.

There is no fear mongering here….rather have a plan…Most have no plan. I have taught so many that only realized after a crash and loosing countless amounts of money, is it worth to take responsibility for their own trading. Trend Following is not easy and requires a great deal of emotional & psychological work…..

If I can help you…please let me know…
Best

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