Commodity Trading & Trend Following

The FED and the TARP program has lent or guaranteed almost $12.8 trillion if you add it all up. Putting this into perspective this massive sum is virtually approaching the total GDP or everything produced in the US last year. The nationג€™s gross domestic product was $14.2 trillion in 2008.

No one rings a bell and says today we are in a Depression. More so, as much as there are accepted ideas of what is an economic depression it is hard to find economists in agreement. One of the most accepted determinations by economists is based on unemployment. Some other determinations are restriction of credit, shrinking output & investment, rampant bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations. Price deflation or hyperinflation are also common elements of a depression.

Hopefully more than political back standing will be accomplished at next weeks upcoming G20 Summit.The issues could not be more serious when the world’s most powerful leaders meet in London next week. Millions of jobs have already vanished and millions more could go as the global economy faces its biggest downturn since the Great Depression. Fear has gripped virtually everyone country and every citizen of the planet. If the summit is not successful then obviously there will be a greater sense of drift and crisis.
Yet there those, whose great hope that the summit will bring of the beginning of the end of the crisis as well hope that the world leaders were able to galvanize a new direction and a new authority.

Alpha Magazineג€™s top 25 wage earners for 2008 is full with trend following traders. The trend followers:

They don’t call Nouriel Roubini Doctor Doom for nothing. Roubini is anything but real. Nouriel Roubini has vast experience as well is currently a New York University professor. He was one of the few who predicted last yearג€™s economic crisis. Roubini sounded a warning that many investors who recently participated in this great rally ( one of the best since 1987) should pay attention to.

Pretty strong words were used by the prime minister of the Czech Republic,Mirek Topolanek regarding Obama’s economic plans. Mr. Topolanek holds the EU’s six-month rotating presidency. He believes that the European Union governments must avoid the type of spending ( $2 Trillion dollars) to get out of the current recession ( Depression?). His views were not widely accepted by his colleagues. Is it that Mr. Topolanek is just going through a rough time personally since he was ousted by his own parliament after a losing a no confidence vote on Tuesday?

The question is are we just hearing political banter or should we believe the Chinese? Several weeks ago Premier Wen Jiabao called on March 13 for the U.S. ג€œto guarantee the safety of Chinaג€™s assets. The fact that even buying and holding US Treasuries the Chinese are losing money as their currency the Yuan has appreciated versus the US Dollar.
All the while, yesterday Obama came out with support of the US Dollar and to reply to the Chinese he stated, ג€œI donג€™t believe there is the need for a global currency,ג€. The obvious fact is that the Chinese are nervous holding US Dollars. Why shouldn’t they be after last weeks $1 Trillion dollar printing party. I think many of us are nervous holding dollars and maybe rightfully so. But, lets put in the reality. Maybe the US Dollar is the best of the worst. The European economies are in bad shape. They seem slow to react to the current reality.

Wouldn’t be wonderful if all we had to do was listen to the professional gurus and know what we need to do in order to make money. I really don’t remember who said what other than Nouriel Roubini but I wish I could just listen to the experts and make money.
What I find interesting is overall Bullish tone that many gurus have.

The innocence and knowledge of a child is sometimes much more clearer than our insights. My young daughter asked me what comes after a Trillion dollars. My son answered a Zillion. I had to interject and add that does not exist ( yet). Maybe U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will invite a new number the way he is going.

Very clearly there was extreme dissatisfaction over big bonuses paid by firms bailed out with U.S. taxpayer money. Is it hard to understand why when people are losing their jobs, houses or even hope. It is ironic when a salary of $100k is considered a great salary for someone in Iowa and bonuses in the $100 of thousands or even millions were given to incompentents.