Andrew Abraham

andy-0101 My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I adhere to the philosophy of trend following. Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets me apart from other traders is that I am not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk I will have to tolerate to achieve my goals.

Contact Details

If you are interested in contacting for speaking engagements. Please email me at Andrabr9@gmail.com or call 954 903 0638.

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Risk Warning

Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk. The evaluations of futures and commodities may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, that you will profit, or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible, where projections of future conditions are attempted.

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What Does A Depression Look Like?

depression
No one rings a bell and says today we are in a Depression. More so, as much as there are accepted ideas of what is an economic depression it is hard to find economists in agreement. One of the most accepted determinations by economists is based on unemployment. Some other determinations are restriction of credit, shrinking output & investment, rampant bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations. Price deflation or hyperinflation are also common elements of a depression.

Getting back to unemployment one of the differences between a recession and depression is crossed when unemployment rises above 10% and stays there for several years. Currently the unemployment rate in the US is 8.1%. Interesting however is that many are predicting a new Depression and that in the 1980s the unemployment situation actually was worse.
To put things into context in the Great Depression of the 1930s, the unemployment was 25%. Clearly pain and fear were widespread.
The Depression of 1929 was made worse by numerous mistakes by the part of the FED at the time. The Fed raised interest rates and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act crushed trade. The Smoot-Hawley Tarriff was in acted to protect US industries at the time. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was approved on June 17, 1930, which raised U.S. tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods to record levels. This act of protectionism spread around the world and was one of the catalysts of the economic collapse. With the upcoming G20 meeting this week..it seems that day by day more and more economist & even politicians are beginning the protectionist banter.
Include this with all the money being spent( wasted). Could this be the toxic combination that could lead us to an even greater situation. As much as history is a guide to the past, things are always different. Could simply the sheer of amount of money being printed around the world be the element that brings on economic collapse. Isn’t it possible that country after country could default on their debt? More plausible, country after country has been lowering the value of their currency. Today on Bloomberg there was an article that The Monetary Authority of Singapore may devalue the cityג€™s currency. Think about it, Singapore was one of sovereign wealth funds that was busy investing last year. Now they are devaluing their currency. How does that bode for the economically weaker countries around the world?
Time will tell what will occur, but there are many signs on the wall.
What do you think? Are we just in a Recession? It sure seems a much worse in my opinion.
Doing a check checklist
1 Restriction of credit- YES
2 Shrinking output & investment-YES
3 Rampant bankruptcies-YES
4 Reduced amounts of trade and commerce-YES
5 Volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations -YES
6 Price deflation or hyperinflation -YES

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