Andrew Abraham

andy-0101 My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I adhere to the philosophy of trend following. Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets me apart from other traders is that I am not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk I will have to tolerate to achieve my goals.

Contact Details

If you are interested in contacting for speaking engagements. Please email me at Andrabr9@gmail.com or call 954 903 0638.

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Risk Warning

Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk. The evaluations of futures and commodities may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, that you will profit, or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible, where projections of future conditions are attempted.

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What To Expect On The Inflation Front

inflation

One reads the papers and all are claiming Inflation is non existent. Well, maybe for the short run it might be. Looking back at the Great Depression of 1929 there are many similarities and inflation could rise it’s ugly head.

In the midst of the Great Depression there was a strong upward trend in commodity prices that began during 1933-1935. This move was a reaction to the inflationary policies of the F.D. Roosevelt Administration. The Roosevelt administration devalued the US dollar relative to gold and spent on numerous programs to boost economic activity. These policies led to strong economic growth during 1935-1937 and to a strong rebound in commodity prices. This was an artificial stimulus and was not sustainable. The commodity boom came to a sudden end in early 1937 and all the economic ‘progress’ that had been made over the preceding 4 years was quickly wiped out. In 1938 commodity prices were back to their 1932-1933 lows. In reality, no real economic progress had been made during 1933-1937. The Roosevelt administration through its massive spending, had only managed to create the ILLUSION of prosperity. It is uncanny similiar to the current situation. Stock market participants were not able to make money in this situation nor were real estate speculators. Anyone who traded commodities at the time were not just able to survive the depression, but actually made money. There were distinct trends. Trend followers made money.

More interesting, ( maybe just as in now) Roosevelt in 1938 began a spending program that would be so large it made all the monetary recklessness of 1933-1937 look miniscule by comparison. The only thing that saved Roosevelt and possibly the US economy was World War 2. Bottom line in the Great Depression first there was deflation but all the spending caused inflation. Inflation is a destroyer of wealth. Anyway you look at it, Govt spending schemes have led to monetary inflation and to a rally in commodity prices.

There are obvious comparison between the 1930s and the 2000s. In particular, monetary inflation during the early-to-mid 2000s led to an economic boom and a commodity-price rally that quickly fell apart during 2007-2008, prompting the current government to implement massive spending schemes that should ultimately lead to vastly greater monetary inflation. There are those that can not even contemplate that inflation will raise it ugly head. All they are concerned about is deflation. It is interesting when ever there is announcements which are not US Dollar friendly commodities took off. In all reality they are the only things that are real.

So without just making this an interesting discussion. How does one protect wealth? Even just staying in US dollars one stands the chance of being devalued ( as was in the Depression). The best suggestion is not to have an opinion but be a trend follower. Learn about trend following. Find Trend Following managers that understand risk.

What do you think?

New Dollar Yen Relationship revealed:
This video explains step-by-step how to analyze the dollar and
its relationship to the Yen.

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