Forecasting versus Trend Following in Commodity Trading
The difference between successful commodity traders and other investors seem to become very apparent. Non successful investors love to make wonderful predictions and put their money on the line accordingly. The difference with successful trend followers and commodity trading advisors is there is no prediction…
There are no bragging at parties or at any other time with successful trend following commodity futures traders.
The funny thing with the non professionals is their predictions are often based upon inaccurate media reporting, emotion, what worked during the last cycle, cocktail party chatter, or a host of other nonsense. What makes this worse is the occassional time they are right. People believe that so and so is a guru. Well in all my years I have yet to meet a guru. The fact is most investors do the wrong thing at the wrong time and suffer poor results? Letג€™s break down some of the most important tenants of successful investing to better understand all that goes into a process that is capable of generating consistent results.
1.Have a plan
2. Have defined exits and entries both with profits and losses
3. Think in terms of probabilities
4. Think in terms of risk per trade
5. Think in terms of risk per sector
6. Think in terms of open trade equity risk.
The fact is I have been too many parties where non professionals have bragged how much they made in the recent stock market run up. I also was at numerous parties in the fall of 2008 where cheap got cheaper…and no one bragged… Forecasting and predicting is for losers… If you want to potentially succeed..have a plan… have a risk management strategy thought out… this is hard stuff… Don’t kid yourself and think for one second this is easy… Your goal is to compound money over the next 10-20 years… Remember that…10-20 years…
Andrew Abraham
www.myinvestorsplace.com
Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk.People can and do lose money trading.