Andrew Abraham

andy-0101 My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I adhere to the philosophy of trend following. Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets me apart from other traders is that I am not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk I will have to tolerate to achieve my goals.

Contact Details

If you are interested in contacting for speaking engagements. Please email me at Andrabr9@gmail.com or call 954 903 0638.

Books Worth Reading

Sponsored Listings

Risk Warning

Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk. The evaluations of futures and commodities may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, that you will profit, or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible, where projections of future conditions are attempted.

infolinks

Links

Trend Following CTA abraham investment management
Binary Options
Learn Forex Trading Online
Get a grip on forex trading with this free online course.
Tax Software

Why Are We Such Suckers For Prediction?

ֲ 

I keep CNBC on all day while I work. Perhaps I think I will miss something, or maybe itג€™s the background noise thatג€™s appealing. In any event, what I always find amazing is the parade of experts making one prediction after another. I think I would fall out of my chair if I heard one of them say ג€œWell, to tell you the truth Mark, I have no ideaג€.

ֲ 

Whatג€™s most surprising is the arrogance in which these forecasts are made. The forecaster always seems convinced he is right. I think the world is far more complicated than we think, yet we always seem to place way more value in what we know over what we donג€™t know. If you are an auto mechanic, you most likely know more about fixing cars than you donג€™t know about fixing cars. Also, errors are easily rectified. In this light, a good mechanic is an expert.

ֲ 

If you are a psychologist or an economist, I donג€™t think so. In fact, itג€™s practically impossible that your knowledge of the human condition would exceed your lack of knowledge of the human condition. Not to mention that mistakes can be catastrophic in these ג€œbig systemג€ type professions. Plumbers donג€™t kill people but doctors do. Mistakes when predicting the weather, the economy, or the financial markets can and do ruin our lives. Nothing is as potentially dangerous as a rational prediction in an irrational world. So, are there really experts in these professions or are they just the one-eyed men in the land of the blind? I Guess Yogi Berra, the great baseball player/coach had it nailed when he said ג€œIt is tough to make predictions, especially about the future.ג€

ֲ 

I think we love predictions because if we make predictions, and/or concoct explanations for those events we predicted wrong, then we wonג€™t feel like victims of randomness. We feel more in control. But are we more in control or just intoxicated by some illusion of control?

ֲ 

In his book ג€œThe Black Swanג€ Nassim Taleb says,ג€ We have seen how good we are at narrating backwards, at inventing stories that convince us we understand the past. In spite of the empirical record we continue to project into the future as if we were good at it, using tools and methods that exclude the rare events.ג€ Funny isnג€™t it, since the big, rare, unpredictable events are precisely what shape the world. Events like the automobile and the World Wars, the internet and the Beatles.

ֲ 

I think itג€™s ironic that by accepting we have little control over most things, actually gives us greater control over what might happen. By realizing our lack of control we may be able to minimize the more negative events. If we realize anything can happen when trading commodities, then we are more likely to actively manage our exposures to big loss and potential ruin.

ֲ 

ֲ 

Enjoy this article? Like to receive more like it each day?ֲ Simply click hereֲ and enter your email address in the box below to join them.ֲ 

Email addresses are only used for mailing articles, and you may unsubscribe any time by clicking the link provided in the footer of each email.

ֲ 

ֲ 

Guest Post by Charles Maley

www.ViewpointsOfaCommodityTrader.comֲ 


Be Sociable, Share!
Add This! Blinkbits Blinklist Blogmarks BlogMemes BlueDot BlogLines co.mments Connotea del.icio.us de.lirio.us Digg Diigo DZone Facebook FeedMeLinks Folkd.com Fleck Furl Google Google Reader icio.de IndianPad Leonaut LinkaGoGo Linkarena Linkter Magnolia Mister Wong MyShare Ask.com MyStuff Ask.com Yahoo! MyWeb Netscape Netvouz Newsgator Newsvine Oneview.de RawSugar reddit Rojo Segnalo Shadows Simpy SlashDot Smarking Sphere Spurl Startaid StumbleUpon TailRank Technorati ThisNext yigg.de Webnews.de ReadMe.ru Dobavi.com Dao.bg Lubimi.com Ping.bg Pipe.bg Svejo.net Web-bg.com Plugin by Dichev.com

Leave a Reply

 

 

 

You can use these HTML tags

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>