Commodity Trading & Trend Following

There are many reasons commodity traders or even stock market investors fail.

Read this email that was sent to me. This is an example of one of the main reasons for failure.

Remember the charts condense all the economic, political and emotional expectations. And yes, every stock market movement is geared solely by expectations, not the real thing……….

And thatג€™s what they are telling now:

We are currently at a stock market peak and the down hill is just around the corner.

The rally since March 2009 is coming to a halt.

Put your helmet and check your safety brakes, for we have now a bumpy road way DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Those who sell short will now rule…………

The fat lady is singing now, so you realize that the aria (the recent rally) is over………

You have been warned.

Listen with your Brain

Sincerely
XXXXXX (name withheld)

What is he doing? He is predicting! How many of you receive or send emails like this? I get them and ignore them…

I have learned that virtually all marketsג€¦regardless if they are Stocksג€¦ Forexג€¦ Commodities all trend at some point. This is the only way to make money in my book…The Commodity markets, forex markets and stock markets act the same today as they have 100 years ago. Nothing ever changes. I can show you a chart of any commodityג€¦a forex spreadג€¦ or any stockג€¦ this chart will look the same. Because I understand the greater concept…I know that for long periods nothing happens…I know that I have to lose in order to win. As Ed Seykota has said..losses and profits are like breathing and exhaling…As I have repeatedly stated.. only four things can happen in trading..small losses..small profits…large ( rare ) profits and large draw downs ( which I attempt to avoid with immediate placed stops). Do you think this guy who wrote the email thinks in this fashion… He knows what the market is going to do… That is great news..because no one does…and more so…anything can happen. The stock market can go to 15,000 as easily as it can go to 5,000 and I do not care. Smart money follows the trends.

The real story is that really nothing happens probably 70-80% of the timeג€¦During these periods it is VERY hard to profit. Once in a while there are periods that are trends. With trends profits become a potential. This is the whole idea of trend following. Any long time trend following commodity trading advisor knows that predictions are worthless. This is what separates losing traders to long time trend followers. The problem is fundamental analysis or even technical analysis is predictive. Trend following is reactive. The fact is there are trend following commodity trading advisors who have been around for decades that have grinded out double digit returns on average for decades. The next reality is most want to be commodity traders fail because they look to predict and have no plan Commodity trading is not easy by any means. Enduring multiple small losses is the price to pay for long term success in commodity trading. How we trade is by utilizing systematic methods. We trade a wide basket of commodities, forex, interest rates and indices. Since I work with a group of colleagues we reinforce our discipline and strengthen each other. A trading system is worthless if not followed with the utmost of discipline. The trading system is not a scary complicated black box. It is rather a set up rules based on money management, risk management with entry and exit signals. The only things that can hold up in the real world are simple ideas. I and my colleagues have seen virtually everything that can wrong in the markets. We have seen all the mistakes. If we can help youג€¦Please send me an email to contact you. I have been trading since 1994 personally and have compounded my way to wealth by systematic commodity trading as well as investing in other commodity trading advisers and hedge fund managers.
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Andrew Abraham
www.AJpartnersinc.com
Futures trading involves risk. People can and do lose