My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I am a commodity trading advisor/co manager of a commodity pool who adheres to the philosophy of trend following.
Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets us apart from other Commodity trading advisors and commodity pools is that we are not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk you will have to tolerate to achieve your goals.
Is The Stock Market Starting to Fail?
The proverbial question is we in a V shaped recovery or a Bear Market Rally. Without predicting (One word every true trend follower hates) there are signs becoming apparent the stock market rally from March might be coming to an end. There are technical indicators which are pointing to weakness as well as recent economic figures are beginning to disappoint investors hoping for a recovery. The stock market is down approx 5 percent from its 2009 peak of 1097.91 on Oct. 19. What more so troubling is that the SP 500 index is below its 50 day moving average. The 200 day moving average is currently at 981. A break below this number would be considered very negative. More so there have been distinct divergences between current price action and numerous momentum indicators.
Besides the technical’s there are the fundamental issues…such as the Commerce Department figures released on Oct. 30 showed Americans cut spending in September, the first reduction in five months. Foreclosures are increasing…unemployment has been increasing. Simple question… how can companies be making money…people are spending less… people are losing their homes… people are losing their jobs? It is pretty obvious to question this rally as so many have.
However Obama has come out with his recent radio address.. “We have made progress”!
Maybe I am missing something but I do not understand what progress…except as trying to convince people we are out of the woods.
Paul Tudor Jones has come out very loudly and stated that the rally since March has been a Bear Market rally. As well Christopher Wood, chief strategist at CLSA Ltd has told his readers after Friday’s action to go short the US Stock Indices. Nouriel Roubini is sounding much more of the profit of doom again.
Trend followers do not make predictions. This is not my goal but the green shoots are looking very unhealthy and the ramifications can be very hard for stock market investors. When commodity trading and investing it is paramount to have a plan and have the discipline to stick with it. There are too many investors who bought this stock market rally without a plan. Trading without a plan can destroy a portfolio.
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Andrew Abraham
A.Abraham@AngusJackson.com
www.AJpartnersinc.com
www.myinvestorsplace.com
Futures trading involves risk. People can and do lose money
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Yes I agree completely with you, the trading volume has been decreasing as the S&P has been goign up the last few months, it seems the rally is runninng out of steam and a correction could be in sight soon.
Trading plan should consider to be valuable, as it guides and governs your trading actions. It also gives yourself an edge in your trading.
A trading plan is something that is absolutely essential, but it is not something that every trader has considered before committing to placing their hard-earned money in the stock market.