Want to Lose Money- Guru Predictions
I learned my hard lessons early in my career. I tried following a newsletter that claimed tremendous returns. All it was for me was tremendous losses. What I learned …No one knows the future. No one knows anything more than me. We all have opinions but opinions have not made me any money.
Listed below are several short predictions of Nouriel Roubini and their accuracy.
In April 2009, near Dow 7,950, Roubini predicted the markets would retest the March lows of Dow 6,500. They never did.
In July 2009, near Dow 8,100, he described the market’s run as nothing more than a bear rally. Yet the Dow rose 38% over the next nine months.
In October, near 9,700, Roubini called for a bearish 10% to 20% pullback. Not only was he six months early, but the market’s selloff went to 9,700 from 11,200. The current cyclical low is essentially at the same spot where Roubini made his bearish call…six months earlier. You can’t be much more off than that.
No one knows the future…No one knows where the markets are going….The good news is you do not have to in order to make money. The simple key is to follow the trend. A recent example for me is that many sentiment indicators looked extremely bearish, however price has been increasing on the SP 500 and Nasdaq. I had signals to buy both on Sept 9 2010 and Sept 10 2010. Contrary to my opinions I took a low risk bet and currently it is working. It does not mean it will continue. I have no idea. All I am doing is following my methodology…taking every trade ….being disciplined and patient. These are the Holy Grail of Trend Following!
Futures trading involves risk. People can and do lose mone