Nassim Taleb’s Return of a Black Swan?
Nassim Taleb authored a best selling book in 2007 named “The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable”. Taleb brought about the point that history has numerous unexpected, rare high-impact events. Most people never expect these 6th sigma events and these ” Black Swans” or 6th sigma events change reality. The black-swan theory is based on the misconception that all swans were white. Examples of Black Swan events range from 911 to the mortgage crisis.
Taleb has been a critic of U.S. President Barack Obama and his administration. Taleb believes they have weakened the country’s economy by attempting to foster growth instead of paying down the federal debt. He continues by stating that total US debt is higher than it was in 2008 and unemployment is worse. Ironically the National Bureau of Economic Research declared last week the recent recession is over. Tell that to the 9.6% of the US population ( which does not include those who have stopped looking for work). Combine this with the indoctrination of buy and hold. People were brain washed that markets go up regularly, but if you look at the last 10 years people lost money by being loyal stock investors.
No one knows the future but many long time successful hedge fund managers and commodity trading advisors are concerned. Remember when others are greedy….Be SCARED! Trend followers are neither scared nor follow blindly predictions of even market gurus. I follow price and take low risk bets…try to buy the strongest and sell the weakest. This methodology has me in the ND and SP 500 with nice open profits. However I have no idea if they will continue. What I do know is that I take every signal with my partners and over time we will stumble into some very nice trades. This is what trend following is. One has to be humble…disciplined…patient …with a strong focus on risk.
Futures trading involves risk. People can and do lose money