Commodity Trading & Trend Following

Too many investors in commodity trading advisers chase performance numbers and then when their expectations are not met they leave the commodity trading adviser. One glaring example of this is EMC Capital Management. Their Classic program has been around since 1985 with a CAROR of approx 22%. I am sure not many of us can [...]

Below is an interesting article from Attain.
MANAGED FUTURES DRAWDOWN, RECOVERY, AND RUN UP CYCLES
October 4, 2010
With several multi-market systematic programs on Attain’s recommended list such as Clarke Capital Worldwide, Integrated, Robinson Langley, and APA Strategic Diversification program seeing nice gains in September – it brought into sharp relief for us just how cyclical the returns [...]

According to the CME release
That as part of a “normal review of market volatility,” it has determined that T-Bills should no longer be treated as risk-free when used as collateral.
Wow…Even Gold is not a safe haven. Gold can go to $2,000 or even back to $200. Anything can happen. Need a plan to manage the [...]

For those of you who have never heard of Michael Burry you must watch this Bloomberg video. Michael Burry returned for himself and his investors 400%+ in one year. Michael Burry is a risk taker but with prudence. This is a must watch video.
Michael Burry Story
Abraham investment management
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE [...]

Draw downs + leverage = Big trouble
There will always be draw downs. It is a fact of life when trading. The leverage however is in our control. Leverage is great when things are working however lethal when they are not. The key to long term success is managing your risk. Profits come…it is like defense [...]

Compounded Absolute Returns for a Lifetime
You see if every day: distraction. The distraction that goes on during 2011 daily life is off the charts.
Trend following does not care.
Trend following wants to make the most money possible.
Trend following is still the legal and ethical way to get rich.
Trend following at its core is the greatest strategy [...]

Diversified Managed Account $ 300,000
June 2011
Global Diversified $150,000 managed accounts
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec YTD
2011 -6.46 2.69 -3.37 10.07 -7.64 -2.48 -7.98
2010 2.58 -.056 -2.80 -2.95 5.8 1.13 1.12 2.84 5.74 13.03 -.59 3.79 32.00
2009 1.51 -2.59 -1.12
Diversified $300,000 managed accounts
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec YTD
2011 -1.54 2.86 -1.79 8.04 -5.45 -3.77 -2.23
2010 2.16 -2.76 -.07 -2.75 4.01 -.14 1.00 .7 2.84 7.11 -3.33 2.39 11.19
2009 -.4 -2.2 4.11 -4.09 -2.74
The above returns are net to the investor.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH
TRADING IS [...]

This is the title of another article a colleague sent me… It is almost funny, I do not remember in 2008 or any great year for trend following that there were article after article. Draw downs are part of trend following. These are times to invest in commodity trading advisers who are trend followers who [...]

There was an article in the New York times that spoke about how trend followers and commodity trading advisers are ” Eating Crow”. I find articles like this very encouraging as in the past I have seen repeatedly pundits call for the demise of trend following. It reminds me of the front pages of Barrons [...]

The definition of an emerging CTA is one whose track record is less than five years long and has less than $100 million dollars under management. Most investors feel uncomfortable allocating to new & emerging Commodity trading advisers. Personally since I have been allocating to CTAs for almost 17 years I have experienced greater returns [...]