It is not over until it is over with trend following
This year has been very tough on many trend followers. It seems that many trend followers have not made money since December of 2010. Clearly there are exceptions such as Chadwick, Fort LP and Saxon however the majority including myself are having a flat year at best. The standouts on the downside are Chesapeake and Altis. These two CTAs have long successful record yet many investors are leaving them ( foolishly in my opinion..this should be the time to invest in them).
I look at trend following as a marathon. We are not even in the fourth quarter of a football game looking for a touchdown. It would be nice to have a positive year and make money but to a big degree we are at the whim of Mr. Market. I have learned over time to look at trend following is how much is my account worth at the end of 10 years, 15 years or till the end of my lifetime. At a 15% CAR over 10 years an account has 4 times and over a 15 year period 8 times. What does one glean from this ( easier said then done), that any trade, any month , any year does not mean anything. This is really tough to internalize and it took me a long time to start to think this way. It is tough. Trend followers put on positions only to see the majority not work. This taught me to learn to say to myself ” How much will this cost me to see “IF” the trade works”. Trend following is surely not for everyone. Trend following is not retirement in a box. Trend following takes extreme patience and discipline.
It is not over until it is over with trend following. Trend following is a lifetime strategy for me. It is like a marriage…for better and for worse…For winning years ( at times) and having ugly draw downs and even worse…extended periods of draw downs.
Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss no matter who is managing your money and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results
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