Andrew Abraham

andy-0101 My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I adhere to the philosophy of trend following. Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets me apart from other traders is that I am not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk I will have to tolerate to achieve my goals.

Contact Details

If you are interested in contacting for speaking engagements. Please email me at or call 954 903 0638.

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Risk Warning

Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk. The evaluations of futures and commodities may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, that you will profit, or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible, where projections of future conditions are attempted.



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Simple Robust Ideas For Trend Following

Do not confuse the wording simple ideas for trend following with the connotation that trend following is easy.

Trend following has to be the hardest thing for a trader to do. You will have countless losses and long draw downs. Trend Following is a marathon. If you are looking for get rich quick…good luck. It does not exist! Nor does retirement in a box!

My point is that trend following uses simple ideas like trend breakouts. They are very basic…and can be very powerful overtime.

Too many times we try to make simple things more complicated! There are those that think simple means unsophisticated or not possible to generate money. They are very wrong and the track records going back decades of many trend followers prove them wrong. The key to success or compounding money over time is the ability to stay focused, stay disciplined, follow the plan and have patience. This is the Holy Grail! Richard Donchian the father of trend following simply bought the 20 day high and sold the 10 day low. Does not seem to complicated. I am sure he went through some ugly draw downs and durations of draw downs over his career.

Trend following in itself is basically simple. You do not have to over analyze it. You just have to “just do it” as Nike says.

Again Simple to do …does not mean simple at all.

KISS, keep it simple and keep it stupid.

I use two methodologies…Trend Breakout and Trend Retracement.

The Trend Breakout is I am buying the X bar with a Y bar Hard stop. Many of these trades do not work. You never really know when a trend is actually starting.

The Trend Retracement is I am looking to buy a pullback from what seems to be a trend. You really never know when something is trending and you attempt your trade.

Many people (including myself when I first began) think that the fancy Ivy schools or reams of research reports will bring trading profits. My proprietary robust ideas are more successful that complicated analysis. When I first began my journey of learning I sought out the Holy Grail. I thought there was some secret method, Fibonacci, Elliot wave or Gann idea that will enable to me to make money. I personally have not been able to figure out or predict when a market will move. I got to the point that I realized that I could not nor anyone else accurately predict over time when a market will move. I started to doubt that gurus really existed. Prechter was still a perma bear years after his great call of the stock market in 1987. Once I really internalized this, my anxiety level fell and I was OK not to even think to predict or know why a market moved. I learned that anything can happen and will happen. I realized all information was in the price. I did not need to predict anything to be successful. More so I realized that no one knows anything more than me. I have invested with many commodity trading advisors over the years. In the beginning I thought they were smarter or simply just better than my own trend following. I realized this is not the case. Some years I have had better returns in my trend following then some of the managers I invest with and some years I have worse. It does not matter though, as I am looking to compound my money over long periods of time and want to “try” to smooth it out as best I can.

Trend following is not for everyone. There are always draw downs and losses. In order to try to succeed in trend following you need realistic expectations. Soon I will be teaching a course on trend following. I invite you to join. Please be aware, you will have to work on the methodology as well as your patience & discipline.

Trading is very difficult. Trend following is not for everyone!


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