Andrew Abraham

andy-0101 My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I adhere to the philosophy of trend following. Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets me apart from other traders is that I am not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk I will have to tolerate to achieve my goals.

Contact Details

If you are interested in contacting for speaking engagements. Please email me at or call 954 903 0638.

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Risk Warning

Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk. The evaluations of futures and commodities may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, that you will profit, or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible, where projections of future conditions are attempted.



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Unrealistic Expectations when Trend following

Too many new traders think they can quit their day job and start printing money. The truth could not be further. It took me many years to ” REALLY” get it.

Really get it means that any trade is 50/50 regardless of any type of analysis.

Really get it means it is ok to have trades not work(lose money). Who says they have to?

Really get it means to “try” to keep my losses small and manageable.

Really get it means having no emotions either when trades do not work(I lose money) or when trades do work( I make money). Basically detached and realizing that I can make my money over a long series of trades and I have to stay in the marathon to try to succeed.

Really get it means being patient. Being patient means having years like this year in which in my own trend following did not make money as well as the commodity trading advisors I invest with did not make money either & I am not wanting to quit.

Trend following is a marathon!

My goal was to eliminate the emotional baggage when trading. This methodology of thinking will help you as it did for me.One way which helped me to eliminate the emotional baggage was to mitigate my expectations. I have no expectation that any trade will work. I mitigate my expectations of profits.

Really think about it, most people when they put on a trade expect it to be profitable or otherwise why would they put on the trade. Successful trend followers know that they make money over a long series of trades. They have an edge but never expect that any one particular trade has to work. They keep on trend following after being whipped on trades. Two in particular stand out. I was long sugar the other day, got taken out and as I glanced at the screen I see it reversed and is up 1% ( big deal..I followed my rules exactly to the plan)
Another example is cattle… got taken out and now again I have a buy signal. Guess what I will do…if it hits my buy stop…buy…I know that I do not know the future and anything can happen. Maybe cattle will be the trade of the year, who knows?

In order to compound money over time we need to force ourselves out of the unrealistic expectation mode. Every trade is a random event. Because the last X number of trades did not work who says that trade Y will not be the trade of the year.
Trade Y could be a trade that you sit back and say to yourself, Wow I would never have expected that to happen.This leads to the understanding that anything can happen and will happen, trades can go to extremes. Since we know trades can go to extremes this reinforces why we immediately have stops to protect to the negative and why we have trailing stops that follow big winners to lock in profits for the positive.

Be realistic in your trend following! Trend following is not retirement in a box. You will have to do work.


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