Can Simple Robust Trend Following Strategies really Generate Returns?
Too many times we try to make simple things more complicated! There are those that think simple means unsophisticated or not possible to generate money. They are very wrong and the track records going back decades of many trend followers prove them wrong. All one has to do is look at the audited real time records of Bernard Drury, Saxon, David Druz,Chesapeake, Campbell & Co, Salem Abraham and many others who really understand what it takes to be successful when trend following. The key to success or compounding money over time is the ability to stay focused, stay disciplined, follow the plan and have patience. This is the Holy Grail!
Trend following in itself is basically simple. You do not have to over analyze it. You just have to just do it as Nike says.
KISS, keep it simple and keep it stupid.
Many people (including myself when I first began) think that the fancy Ivy schools or reams of research reports will bring trading profits. My proprietary robust ideas are more successful that complicated analysis. When I first began my journey of learning I sought out the Holy Grail. I thought there was some secret method, Fibonacci, Elliot wave or Gann idea that will enable to me to make money. I personally have not been able to figure out or predict when a market will move. I got to the point that I realized that I could not nor anyone else accurately predict over time when a market will move. I started to doubt that gurus really existed. Prechter was still a perma bear years after his great call of the stock market in 1987. Once I really internalized this, my anxiety level fell and I was OK not to even think to predict or know why a market moved. I learned that anything can happen and will happen. I realized all information was in the price. I did not need to predict anything to be successful. More so I realized that no one knows anything more than me. I have invested with many commodity trading advisors over the years. In the beginning I thought they were smarter or simply just better than my own trend following. I realized this is not the case. Some years I have had better returns in my trend following then some of the managers I invest with and some years I have worse. It does not matter though, as I am looking to compound my money over long periods of time and want to “try” to smooth it out as best I can.
I will be very shortly teaching students exactly how I trade for a living. It is not the Holy Grail as it does not exist. You will learn how to think like a trend follower as well as I will give you the exact methodologies in which I trade. If you want to learn how to trade for a living, I invite you to be one of my students.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE (”FOREX”) IS SUBSTANTIAL.