Commodity Trading & Trend Following

Bet Big…LOOSE BIG….Paulson & Co gold fund is down 54% YTD… This is not trend following…this is making a bet..(maybe it will pay off or maybe it will be a falling knife) Despite the huge losses, which follow a 25% decline last year, New York-based Paulson urged investors to stick with the gold fund, noting […]

Thought to share an idea with my readers and students. I have a new student who trades metals and some other futures contracts. He did last year 120% and he was slightly frustrated. He was not consistent as well as he did not grasp position sizing or how to limit his draw downs. After discussing […]

The Globex is down 40 now on the Dow. I am almost out unless the markets rebound. Anything can happen..however there has been to much exuberance…front page news articles…low vix numbers….High margin….Old Bull Market…I am looking for a reversal to the downside. I am letting the market dictate or just getting filled on buys and […]

I read over the weekend Napoleon Hill’s book- Think and Grow Rich. It is ideal for enhancing trading psychology. Trading pyschology is the key of success when trading. Lets face it…everyone is looking at the same charts. I truly believe that no one knows anything than more than others. The difference is successful traders & […]

This was a headline on Marketwatch.com. Seeing something like this would give me the impression a short term bottom might be in place. The article continues with Peter Schiff… Peter Schiff is ‘doubling down’ on his ‘doomsday’ prediction You never have to the future in order to be profitable when trading stocks. You just have […]

Nikkei 225 is now down over 20% from its highs which is the description of a ‘Bear Market’. The question might be asked, how far away is the US Stock market away from Bear market territory? The crowd is always wrong! Consumer sentiment is at a high, newspapers run front page articles about the Bull […]

Stops moving up…Market selling off hard….Optimism at a height…Margin interest at a height…Interest rates moving up.. VERY Bearish…take it day by day…Just follow the trend! Past Performance not indicative of future performance

So many were speaking about investing ( recklessly) with dividends…Just look at the Dow Jones Utility Index and see how much you recklessly lost over the last month. You lost years of dividends…and it possibly can get worse!

The latest ISM reading came in at 49. Any reading below 50 is considered that the country is in RECESSION. It is not that hard to think this will not have a positive effect on the stock market. There are numerous obvious signs that growth is slowing. Slowing growth is not a positive for the […]

With all the hype in the news and covers of magazines would not be that surprised to see a break in this channel from the beginning of the year on the $DIA.