The Treasury Bear Trend Remains
The reason I am focusing on the 10 years and treasuries is they hold the true direction of market. Eventually the sugar high of stock market will come down to reality..However as a full disclosure in my trading…since I am a trend follower…I am long the Nasdaq as well as some other indexes (albeit with tight stops)….I learned over the years the bigger money( over time) is made on the long side. I have taken shorts on an intra-day basis on several occasions on the hourly bars of the TY- 10 year.
Personally I feel nothing has been truly been resolved since 2008, however that is personal opinion.
The pattern of higher highs and lows from Jul-17 remains intact. Further yield weakness could be limited to 2.555% area before potentially the larger bear trend resumes for 2.756% ahead of 2.85%/2.95%. I remember 1994 vividly. I remember bond funds and mortgage funds that were thought to be safe -completely blew up. The fact is that anything can happen however the true direction of the stock market is going to be based not on feel good news ….rather interest rates.
Peter Brandt work a great article about the bonds. He is predicting a multi year bear market.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance…