The Presidential Election & Trend Following
A colleague sent me his update on his trading and included his views on the potential volatility with it’s impact on Trend following due to the US Elections…
This is probably the most interesting and unpredictable presidential election in our lifetime. It will come down to who will win Florida, Ohio, N. Carolina, & Pennsylvania.
Regardless of who wins – they’ll inherit a huge mess:
Unemployment of 9.7% (U6)
Over 45 million Americans now in Poverty
43 million American on food stamps
94 million who have dropped out of the labor force and no longer look for a job. This is why unemployment has dropped, it doesn’t count those who have stopped looking for work.
A 50 year low on the Labor Force participation rate of only 62.8%
Record low home ownership rate
Riots in the streets
Systemic Poverty. We have spent over $22 TRILLION on the ‘War on Poverty’. Apparently we’ve lost.
National debt has doubled in the last 8 years and is at $19 to $20 Trillion dollars. Much of this debt is short term and costs the Gov’t over $200 billion/yr of the budget. A spike in interest rates could easily double or triple the payment. Hence the Gov’t pressure to keep rates low into eternity.
What does all this mean for Alternative Investments & trend following? Stocks will eventually run low on buy backs and cost cutting, therefore the returns will shrink. Should Mr. Trump win, the 15% Corp tax rate he proposes would be a huge winner for the economy and could be a game changer. Hillary has said she’ll raise taxes including raising them on the middle class and continue with most of the current policies in place. Regardless of who wins volatility like we haven’t seen for years could manifest in a dramatic fashion.
What do you think?