Commodity Trading & Trend Following

The bastion of safety that Muni bonds held in the past might not be that safe any more. All one has to do is use a little common sense. In this economy sales tax, income tax and property tax revenues are declining. The question is can we expect more defaults like Harrisburg, Vallejo [...]

All are seeking safety in these times of uncertainty. The question rises did Crude oil become a safe haven? According to reports supplies are at record highs and some analysts suggested crude should fall to 10-20 dollars a barrel. Hearing things like this simply reinforce my belief that with trend following a basket of [...]

Paul Krugman the Nobel-prize winning economist and writer for the NY times thinks we need another Stimulus. Further more he believes the money should be spent on infrastructure. I am not a noble prize economist nor a writer for the NY times but if the first stimulus just put our grand children in debt what [...]

In these days it is hard to find confidence or trust in anything. As a long term trend follower the only thing I trust is price ( as well as my Golden Retriever, wife and kids). If I tried to trust anything other than price I would surely lose money. The reality is everything known [...]

If you listen to David Rosenberg a famed economist he makes points that are very clear. Not to be negative but the facts speak for themselves.
1.GDP projections for 2010 to the 1.5 to 2 percent range
2. Unemployment is unabated
3.Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans has publicly stated that government programs to help distressed homeowners [...]

In all reality how can you spend your way out of crisis.. Can you imagine telling your wife we do not have any money…and go and spend more…and btw you will just print up some money to take care of her spending. It is a ridiculous thought but that is what politicians are doing. You [...]

It always shocks me that so called investors run for the doors when a commodity trading advisor has a draw down. The fact is as much as they are not palatable for investors to go through they are as normal as breathing out. I look at draw downs of successful long term commodity trading advisors [...]

After Fridays ( relief) rally is it safe to come out and play or invest? Probably not, As a trend follower the trend is still down on the SP 500. Even with Friday’s nice rally, the index is still below the 50 day moving average as well as most importantly 200 moving average.
Nothing has [...]

Rumors abound with the strength of the Japanese Yen if there will be an intervention to stop the trend. Many trend followers are long the Yen from various levels. Depending on their methodology and systems all have different entries however…I would dare to say all trend followers from forex traders to commodity trading advisors are [...]

It seems history always repeats in commodity trading. I remember the Hunt brothers who tried to corner the silver market and now the new guru to show up on the commodity markets Anthony Ward and his Cocoa purchases.
Anthony Ward’s Armajaro Holdings Ltd was written about throughout the world. In July he bought approx $1 billion [...]