Andrew Abraham

andy-0101 My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I adhere to the philosophy of trend following. Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets me apart from other traders is that I am not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk I will have to tolerate to achieve my goals.

Contact Details

If you are interested in contacting for speaking engagements. Please email me at Andrabr9@gmail.com or call 954 903 0638.

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Risk Warning

Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk. The evaluations of futures and commodities may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, that you will profit, or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible, where projections of future conditions are attempted.

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Head and Shoulders Pattern on Crude Oil #USO Oil Stocks

Head and Shoulder patterns are patterns that Trend Followers look for. As much as crude is up today, it questions the rally in many crude stocks. In the below diagram you will see the shoulders and head. I drew a line which was crossed yesterday….

Will be interesting to see where crude stocks go from here…

crude

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Hard to Like Stocks When US Banks & World Banks are Struggling

A picture can say it all. Add in the nose bleed levels of the stock market. There are no bargains virtually in any asset class. Open a newspaper and leading banks in Europe need a bailout such as the 3rd largest bank in Italy…Is it 2007 once again?

banks

Deutsche Bank’s chief economist David Folkerts-Landau has called for a €150bn bailout of European banks, warning Europe is “seriously ill”.

“Europe is seriously ill and needs to address very quickly the existing problems, or face an accident,” he says.

BTW..Stock are near all time highs as they were in 2007 before the crash!!!

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British Pound Going to Parity with US Dollar?

I had this question Could the British Pound Be Going to Parity with US Dollar posed today by a client? Firstly I do not have a crystal ball nor do I give investment advice other than my Commodity Trading advisor client who have signed and agreed to all kinds of disclosures and are aware of the risks of trading commodities and currencies…

We opened a chart of the British Pound and I asked a very simple question…is the trend up..down or sideways….He answered obviously down….

gbp

With him stating it was down….I told him, anything can happen. Anything can happen means the British pound might rally up from this point and to his great dismay it is possible that the British Pound Could Go to Parity with US Dollar.

This is what trend following is…No predictions…just following the trend. Once people internalize this they start their journey of attempting to compound money. Most can not do it. They expect trades to work, and with trend following very few do trend and when they do trend…these people might exit too soon by not having the patience or discipline to let trades work overtime.

The same with investors in CTAS. They want it now. They wan the double digit returns. However most CTAs as well as myself have struggled over the last 5 years. Many famous CTAs threw in the towel. Countless investors bought the 2007 and 2008 highs only to get clobbered in the drawdowns following.

All of this boils down to discipline…expectations..and mostly patience. Clearly a defined trend following plan is needed. Trend Following is never easy…nor is it a weekend course….

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE (“FOREX”) IS SUBSTANTIAL.

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Trend Following August 2007 Redone- #GBP UK Commercial Real Estate

qqq

The stock market had a kind of reversal today which can lead to higher prices in at least the short term. My question are we headed into another August 2007 scenario? We are near all time highs…yet crisis after crisis are coming into focus.

Over the next 160 trading days, the S&P 500 crashed by a further 50%. Total of $10 trillion of market cap was vaporized!!!

The British Pound has gotten hammered. The double whammy of that is if you invested in one of the so called Blue chip Property funds. They gated ( stopped) withdrawals of pension money and personal savings to the tune of 17 billion GBP. Add in the Italian banking crisis ( Italy’s third largest bank Banca Monte dei Paschi Siena)…oh lest I forget the absolute strength of the the leading European Banks!

db

I speak to alot of traders during the day. So many are in denial or can not believe we could encounter a fall in the stock market similar in nature to the Nasdaq.

There is no fear mongering here….rather have a plan…Most have no plan. I have taught so many that only realized after a crash and loosing countless amounts of money, is it worth to take responsibility for their own trading. Trend Following is not easy and requires a great deal of emotional & psychological work…..

If I can help you…please let me know…
Best

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British Pound Trend Following Cheap Gets Cheaper #GBP

Political shock with the British Pound seems to being compounded. Yesterday several real estate funds in the UK gated redemption to the tune of 12 Billion. Can you imagine having your retirement money or pension money and full stop!!!

No one really believed the British would shoot themselves in the head and leave the UK. The British pound initially jumped up to 150 and this morning after I entered my orders I was even shocked to see the chart.

gbp

Trend Followers simply follow the trend. It is never easy and always full of draw downs. However models I use with larger amounts of money would have been initially long the British Pound yet reverse to follow the trend. My point is things go to the complete unexpected…Remember Peak oil that did not peak…or gold going to 5,000…When trend following do not have an opinion. Rather have a full trading plan and have the fortitude to follow it. Trend Following is a marathon …grueling yet potentially rewarding…

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE (“FOREX”) IS SUBSTANTIAL.

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Trend Following Support and Resistance #GDX

When trend following, many times the issue of support and resistance are discussed. Too many traders feel these are lines in the sand that have to hold. Actually in the market, anything can and will happen. Supports can be tested, broken and turned around….and in other cases supports can fail and become resistance.

The key here is when trend following, have a plan. Look for low risk trades and have stops placed ( Low risk does not mean you have low risk…rather inflection points where you know if a trade works or not)

In regard to GDX, this share broke support and turned around. Listening to the market, one could make a bet to go long as the sellers would now have remorse….

gdx

In another example of Wheat….The price of wheat simply went through the support. Believe anything can happen when trading….You will have countless trades that do not work….Have trading stops ahead of time. Do not be hesitant to take a loss as losses can grow much larger. Trading is not for everyone. It is totally a psychological endeavor.

wheat

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE (“FOREX”) IS SUBSTANTIAL.

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Trend Following Watch list Stocks

Every weekend I compile a list of stocks worth watching in my trend following…It has been a very choppy period however there are always opportunities. The key is to watch your risk and try to take low risk bets. I look at risk per trade as well as risk per sector and total risk per day…

The following are a list of stocks for trend following…However you need to make your own judgement and risk calculations..this is not a shopping list or laundry list…just a list of stocks for my trend following….I look for the strongest stocks both technically and fundamentally…

POOL Pool Corporation
SIMO Silicon Motion Tech
FCPT Four Corners Property Trust In
FIVE Five Below Inc
GIMO Gigamon Inc
ULTA Ulta Salon Cosmetic
WB Weibo Corp. Ads
AHS Amn Healthcare Services Inc
ALGN Align Technology I
ANIK Anika Therapeutics
BECN Beacon Roofing Suppl
COR Coresite Realty Corp
NSP Insperity Inc
NTES Netease Inc Ads
NVDA Nvidia Corporation
PAYC Paycom Software Inc
STS Supreme Industries
TDG Transdigm Group Inc
TRU Transunion

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Livermore Shake Out Plus Three Trend Following Pattern

Trend following Trading patterns repeat themselves through out the markets. Regardless of time frame regardless of markets. Jesse Livermore’s Shake Out Plus Three Trend Following Pattern could have been used in the high growth stock of USCR.

Watch the below video in order to learn how to use Jesse Livermore Shake Out Plus Three Trend Following Pattern.

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Worry About than Brexit- Deutsche Bank #DB

Calm has returned ( somewhat) to the markets. Stock markets have bounced back…So what the British pound is still down. World is beautiful? Investors business daily tells it’s subscribers on their ETF model to be 100% invested ( albeit cautiously).

What concerns this trend follower is the worlds largest banks are at lows worse than the 2008 crisis. How can this be after such a great bull market? Are banks safe to put our money? Can there be another Cyprus banking crisis…yes Cyprus is a EU member. Can peoples deposits be used for a bail in?

No one knows the future…however as I am writing this post…gold and silver are moving…GBP is still at Brexit lows….and major banks are at severe lows….

What do you think?

db

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Why Should You Trade With XFR Financial Ltd?

Why Should You Trade With XFR Financial Ltd?

It looks that everything can be done online: from searching for the valuable information and reading news to the buying and performing different types of jobs. The same situation is with online trading, where you can do everything without leaving your home. And this is just great because this online expansion has brought a lot of benefits to traders. Thanks to companies like XFR Financial Ltd, we can now sell and buy our commodities through high-end trading platforms with just a few clicks. You can forget telephone calls, going to your bank and to your broker’s office; the only thing you have to do is to choose commodities you want to trade with, adjust a few parameters and hit a few buttons.

Too Many Brokers To Choose From Can Be A Problem

Choosing an online broker can be such a pain, simply because there are just too many online trading companies that are specialized in providing this kind of service. Just browse for a while and you will be stunned with their number. This is just another proof about profitability and popularity of this type of trading. However, high profitable is accompanied with high risk, which means that you must be very careful when choosing your brokerage company. Some of them are even not regulated by the official financial bodies. You should avoid these companies. On the other hand, there are highly reputable companies like XFR Financial Ltd, which are able to help in your efforts 24/7.

If you choose XFR Financial Ltd as a company you want to trade with, you will be able to trade without any limitations regarding your psychical location or time. In the past, the only way to sell or buy your stocks or currencies was to get in touch with you broker and explain him what he has to do. In some situations, that was impossible due different reasons, like a bad telephone connection or different time zones. As you can guess, such procedure is not ideal for modern trading, where you must react almost immediately if you want to maximize your chances of success. Fortunately, we don’t have these problems anymore.

Tools And Platforms

With XFR Financial Ltd platform for currency trading online, you can close your deal no matter where you are: on the other continent, in the restaurant, or on your safari tour. Time is also irrelevant here, because you will have access to the market non-stop. You will not need any special gadgets or expensive devices for something like that. You can do all this with you laptop or smartphone. The only thing you will need is an appropriate application you must download from your broker. And yes, it is completely free.

As you can see, there are many reasons why you should choose only reputable company to trade with. This is not only because of your convenience and efficiency, but also because of your protection and safety. With a reputable broker, you can be sure that you will be refunded if something happened, so as that you will not be left alone if you get in trouble.

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