Andrew Abraham

andy-0101 My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I adhere to the philosophy of trend following. Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets me apart from other traders is that I am not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk I will have to tolerate to achieve my goals.

Contact Details

If you are interested in contacting for speaking engagements. Please email me at Andrabr9@gmail.com or call 954 903 0638.

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Risk Warning

Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk. The evaluations of futures and commodities may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, that you will profit, or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible, where projections of future conditions are attempted.

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Fact or Fear in the Stock Market Today

Fact or Fear in the Stock Market Today

Yes it has been a very hard market for bears and bulls. There is also a great deal of fear in the stock market today.

Fear

1.All the major indexes are below their 10-week moving averages. This is important because this is an area of institutional support. Any stock below the 10 -week moving average is deemed weak.

Fact

Some stocks such as Facebook and Netflix are holding up and are actually strong.

Fear

Stocks in leading groups such as Software, Biotech and Healthcare got hit last week on big volume.

Fear

Everyone’s darling stock Apple is not performing well

Fact

There is tremendous fear in the market and every time in the past couple of years there has been fear, the stock market has bounced back.

Fact

Markets historically do not go down when the masses are bearish. Contrarily bear markets happen when everyone is bullish…

Bottom line…

Anything can happen. Trade with a plan. Know how much to buy…know when to exit with a profit or a loss…Caution is warranted at this point…

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Stock Favorites Breaking Down $PANW $TSLA $DJIA

One of the key points that I watch are the 50 day exponential moving averages. Yesterday we added a distribution day and the indexes took out the 50 plus the DJIA is below the 200 day moving average. This is much more serious.

Now the leading stocks are breaking the 50 day. Palo Alto and Tesla just closed below.

panw

tsla

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Hedge Fund Leveraged Gambling Ideas

Probably this is an overstatement, however I feel that many Hedge funds are nothing more than leveraged gambling vehicles. They make big bets and when they work they are heroes or genius. However when the do not work, they still have made their management fee.
Why am I bringing this up. I have read various articles of Hedge fund so called gurus who now are having assets ripped away from. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch wealth management arm is pulling investor cash from one of famous Guru hedge fund manager.

The redemptions total $81 million, which is equivalent to around 4% of the fund’s roughly $2 billion. Our stories are floating around how some hedge funds are experiencing huge draw downs due to trying to catch falling knives from Greece to crude oil to Puerto Rico debt.

The fact nothing is easy. Investing is very difficult. I made this site in order to help investors believe in themselves. It was and still is a journey for me. I do not believe in Gurus or Hedge fund gurus. What I suggest is to learn how to trade for yourself. Learn risk management. Learn position sizing. Learn correlations. Learn when to take profits and when to take losses. Do not waste your time looking for magical indicators which will prevent losses.

Let me try to help you achieve your goals…

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Deflation Is Happening with Massive Debts

I have been trading commodities since 1994. I have never seen a period more concerning than now. Most of the time profits have been made on the long side of a trade. Most of the time shorts have not been overly profitable. More so, most CTAs Commodity trading advisors have gone through one of the toughest periods including myself.

What is alarming from my trades is the complete lack of any longs other than US 10 years in one of my programs.Inferences can be made but as stated I have not seen any period like this in my trading career…Simply we are facing Deflation with Massive Debts worldwide.
Time will tell what will be.

Trade with a plan.

long

short

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE (“FOREX”) IS SUBSTANTIAL.

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Is Apple’s Run Over? $AAPL

Many of the stock market indices I look at, are doing all that well. I am not long as well as it has been a very tough market to be short. Most bulls and bears are not making money. Apple seems to be at a key juncture.

Watch this video and let me know if you think Apple’s run is over…

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Trend Following Mentor Free Kindle Book Moving Averages

Get your Free Kindle Book Moving Averages..

Moving averages are one of the basic of technical trading indicators. However in this short ebook you will learn valuable ways to use the moving averages both singly as well as in groups of them. You will be given codes in Metastcok for adaptive moving averages which alleviate somewhat of the lag. As well there is a code in which you can determine the strongest and weakest markets in any time frame. There are sections which deal with day trading & forex as well as the Golden Rule of the 200 Period Exponential moving average.

Kindle Free Book

movig average

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Look At Monthly Charts-Bull Markets- Bear Markets

There is so much noise. We need to simplify things. One of things I suggest is look at a weekly or a monthly chart. You will see exactly where you are at.

SPY- Stock Market
Bullish
bull market

GLD -Gold Market
Bearish
gold

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Bull Market or Bear Market? 200 Day Moving Average

Been a tough market for bulls and bears as the vast majority of shares have gone nowhere. There have been some exceptions like Palo Alto and Sketchers…but so many stocks breakout only to fail.Admittedly frustrating for Bulls…

The big question will the 200 Day Moving Average hold. The 200 day moving average is the line between bull markets and bear markets…
200 dma

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Trend Following is About Patience

Nothing really has to happen when we trade. Profits do not come easily. Most of the time nothing happens and markets just zig zag. In these zig zag periods one has to apply the golden rule of trading

Patience

Trading is a marathon. Not a get rich quick. Just look at the US Stock market this year. Zig zagging between support and resistance. We have gone through sharp selloffs and sharp rebounds. It takes patience and a trading plan to survive this tough market. BTW…It is tough for both bulls and bears.

The market rallied for a second session today with all the major averages showing solid gains. The Nasdaq rose .44% while the SPY was higher by .73%. Both closed near their intraday highs, a sign of strength. Volume was lower across the board. But we are still not trending, rather chopping.

It is a difficult market to make progress in unless you are a very good short term trader. You need to know exactly the type of trader you are or simply have the patience not to play. Most money is made in the beginning of a Bull market after a sharp Bear market. We have not had one of those for 6 years plus.

Do you have the patience to not trade…Sometimes this is the best trade

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The Dearth of Deflation

Anyone who is in the stock market knows how hard this year has been. Bears are getting chopped up as well as Bulls. Maybe not the buy and holders but their day might come in the case of a severe stock market crash. As I trade stocks and mostly commodities I have not seen a period like this virtually forever. The only trends in commodities are down trends. Down Trends are deflation. Just to point out deflation was one of the key issues of the Great Depression. No I am not making outrageous speculations of where any market is going however deflation is very concerning. All one has to do is look at several charts. One needs a complete trading plan to survive in this environment. Do you have one?

copper

crude

gold

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