Andrew Abraham

andy-0101 My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I adhere to the philosophy of trend following. Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets me apart from other traders is that I am not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk I will have to tolerate to achieve my goals.

Contact Details

If you are interested in contacting for speaking engagements. Please email me at Andrabr9@gmail.com or call 954 903 0638.

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Risk Warning

Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk. The evaluations of futures and commodities may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, that you will profit, or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible, where projections of future conditions are attempted.

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Bullish Divergence on $GLD Trend Following

There is a Bullish divergence on Gold’s ETF GLD. We are still below the 200 day moving average however GLD is knocking on the door to break out….

gld

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options or forex can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

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Trend Following Stock Watch list

I always look at the market first to determine if I should be invested or not. Currently I do not have a buy signal on the QQQ or SPY. We are below all the major averages…ie 50 day…and 200 day. However anything can happen when trend following and I do not want to have opinions. When the market is deemed healthy I want to buy the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors.

I have been sitting on the sidelines in cash waiting. I expected a rebound which occurred however to say the correction is over is hard to say…

My watch list consists of the following:

ORLY
HA
CRAY
SEDG
TTWO
EW
CTSH

This is not a shopping list, rather a watch list for trend following. I am looking for breakouts of patterns when and if the market is deemed healthy…

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Trend Following the Stock Market – Is the Bottom In? Weekend Review

With this weeks rebound is the coast clear to dive into bargain stocks? This has been the top topic and the truth is I do not make predictions. I have a hard set of rules that I follow. There are key moving averages that need to be overcome. We are still way below the 200 day exponential moving average. No major positive divergences and no retest of the lows.

The good news possibly is that the vast majority of stocks are below there perspective 200 day moving averages…Majority of stocks have been hitting 52 week lows. There are exceptions like Facebook and the self storage space. It does not seem like capitulation yet…I am still on the sidelines…

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options or forex can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

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Trend Following Weekend Review Is the Stock Market Correction Over?

Had this repeatedly asked….During my Trend Following Weekend Review

Is the Stock Market Correction Over?

Sorry to say, I do not know. I have to take it day by day. The market had massive rally…however still below the 200 EXMA. The leading stocks…the FANGs had a nice run. The VIX fell sharply…Time will tell…however you need a trading plan before you try to bottom fish…

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options or forex can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

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Using the Best Currencies for Scalping

Using the Best Currencies for Scalping

Scalpers, are a type of traders who make profit on the shortest term transactions. Scalping, as a technique, is executed in just a few minutes, it consists on a very short term specific intraday trade, based on a set of technical analysis. A good trading knowledge and the ease of technical comfort, like knowing how to read charts properly, support and resistance levels, fibonacci indicators, and others; are great allies to the scalping technique, so dominating these patterns can eventually turn into a huge profit.

Since scalping consists on a very particular movement, certain currencies are definitely more favourable than others. Usually, the currencies with shorter spreads and lower costs have a bigger room for earnings. For this matter, the most liquid currencies are the ones who usually fit best for scalping.

Always bear in mind that trading, as well as techniques, are in constant changes. So, despite Majors usually stay the same; it is advisable to analyse pairs right before trading. This way, we make sure that the trade, and our portfolios, are facing the best possible scenario. To simplify your learning process, let’s separate them in currency groups: The Majors, Carry pairs and Exotic Currencies.

Major, Carry or Exotic?

Majors are the biggest, most powerful currencies in the market, therefore, their liquidity is pretty much granted, as well as their responsiveness. We could put in this category the USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY and of course, the EURUSD pairs. These pairs are used all around the world, and for scalpers, these tend to hold the highest opportunities for their earnings. Knowing that a currency pair is reliable, liquid and on constant movement, give traders the confidence to scalp them day in and day out.

Carry Pairs, on the other hand, are formed by different currency pairs, while some of them remain the same, the filters that placed them here are different. This time, USDJPY, EURUSD, AUDJPY, NZDJPy, EURAUD and AUDUSD fit to scalper traders looking for big interest spreads between a currency and the other, as well as higher volatility.

We encourage traders, specially when scalping, to be very careful with Carry pair trades. The speed in which the Carry pair trades move can be absurd, sometimes faster than you can set up your stop loss. Experienced and beginner traders can take advantage or suffer from this technique, so be very careful while on it.

Last, but not least, we have the Exotic Currencies. These are, for example: USDEK, USDZAR, USDTRI, NOKUSD and BLRUSD. The main quality of these pairs is that one of the currencies (the exotic one) belongs to a less-known, less liquid country. If you have experience managing money and conversion rates, these could be the pairs for you.

Every technique adapts to certain traders. It depends on the personality and knowledge of the person in question. If you think 1 minute Forex scalping strategy is for you, you should definitely give it a try.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE (“FOREX”) IS SUBSTANTIAL

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The Relative Strength of the Stock Market Weakening- Trend Following

Good news …bad news….

Good News….There was a strong end of day rally in the stock market from a trend following perspective..

Bad News
Relative Strength of the Stock Market Weakening

The Stock Market closed in the upper half of it’s trading range however this is way below the line of demarcation…50 day moving averages. More so we are witnessing a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The question is when there will be, or if there is going to be a bounce. After a sell off the quality of the bounce is critical. So far the market has not been able to really bounce at all. This usually means prices are going lower. I personally do not see any reason to be long at the moment.

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Avoid Bear Markets & The Next Great Depression Free Trend Following Book

Considering the recent stock market action from a trend following perspective, I have decided to make my book How To Avoid Bear Markets & The Next Great Depression free on Kindle this week…

kindle

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Trend Following Stock Market Weekend Review 01112016 $QQQ

What a great way to start the New Year. Actually worst week EVER…yes…EVER…so what you do in the stock market? Panic? Sell Everything? Actually you need to have a complete trend following plan. Firstly in the models I use, one should not be long at this point. However most corrections in the stock market( 75% of them) are contained within a 10% sell off. If we surpass this 10% stock market sell off, bets are off and a greater correction is possible. We use many tools to keep us on the correct side of the market such as moving averages and Ned Davis & Marty Zwieg 4% rule. These both have us exiting.

This is not the time to panic. Rather build a watch list and look for strength in the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors. What is interesting is that STZ, Constellation brands hit a new high. The public storage sectors are still showing strength. The key is to have a trend following plan.
First the stock market itself…then the stocks that are showing strong profits both quarterly and annually….Look for sales to be increasing. These are signs of a stock market winner.

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Short Term Bounce in the Stock Market After A Terrible Week? Trend Following

After an ugly week it is not unthinkable there might be a bounce. However I would not think now is the time to bottom fish or buy the dip. The trend is volatile and many world events very negative.
The major averages sold off hard at the open and after a feeble rally attempt sold off for the rest of the session, finishing at their intraday lows. The COMPQ led the way down with a loss of 3.03% while the SPX was not far behind, falling 2.37%. Volume increased dramatically across the board and was well above average. In fact it was the highest volume of the week. Leading stocks were hit as well with the leaders index falling 2.65% on much higher and above average volume. It also had the highest volume of the week today.

The market is pretty oversold right now after the declines of the worst week in a long time. It would not be unexpected to see at least a short term bounce soon, but I don’t think it would be anything to get excited about. A rally here would probably be a better shorting opportunity than one to go long.

In times like this you need to have a well thought trading plan….

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FANG Stocks are getting Clobbered Trend Following

Facebook
Amazon
Netflix
Google

These the proverbial leaders called Fang. If the leaders fail from a trend following standpoint. Big warning sign. They are struggling ( except NFLX amazing move in the midst of a selloff)…We are below major moving averages….Being long in this environment could be dangerous to ones financial health.

We did not mention this with long term MACD….however so many times we have seen V bounces. This time feels a little different…Have a trading plan…

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