Andrew Abraham

andy-0101 My name in Andrew Abraham. I have been investing in commodities and managed futures since 1994. I adhere to the philosophy of trend following. Trend following stresses a disciplined approach to commodity/ futures trading. Successful trend following and commodity futures investing requires patience, discipline and actively managing the risk. What sets me apart from other traders is that I am not only concerned about the return on investment but how much risk I will have to tolerate to achieve my goals.

Contact Details

If you are interested in contacting for speaking engagements. Please email me at Andrabr9@gmail.com or call 954 903 0638.

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Risk Warning

Futures and commodity trading involve substantial risk. The evaluations of futures and commodities may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, that you will profit, or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible, where projections of future conditions are attempted.

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Trend Following Indicator For Metastock

I have been receiving numerous requests for my Trend Following Indicator. It is coded for Metastock. I have been a metastock user since 1994. I have not found another platform as easy to use as Metastock…

You can note the coloring showing trends all based on moving averages.

metastock

ara1

araa2

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Paul Tudor Jones- Firings

Yesterday on CNBC there was a piece about Paul Tudor Jones laying off approximately 20% of his staff.

The question that pops into my mind is it that Paul Tudor Jones is just too big…or have the markets just been too tough. In all of my career, I have never had such a rough period. Many Global Macro guys as well as CTAs – Commodity trading Advisors have struggled since 2011. If I look at a rolling 5 year period , only small CTAs have profited. Most have gone through very tough draw downs.

John Henry the legendary Trend follower closed up his shop over the last years. Many called for the “Death of Trend Following” Is Paul Tudor Jones another nail on the coffin?

I doubt that very much. What I do not doubt, is how emotionally draining and how tough trend following can be. That is why most do not succeed. It is easy to quit. It is not easy to show up and put on trade after trade in the face of adversity…

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Relative Strength leaders China ETF Trend Following

The old saying I say all the time…you want to buy the strongest. Chinese ETFs currently are the strongest based on Relative strength. This is confirmed by the moving averages. One could simply buy the breakout…in this case 70 day high…filtered by being above moving averages. The stops also can be moving averages or average true range. The first trade did not work…however the second so far is trending along….

Sorry folks and all those who like complicated. This is very simple and takes very little time.

china

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Systematic Trading -Taking Trades You Think will Not Work

I know this first hand….Taking Trades You Think will Not Work Been there and over the years have grown from it. I hear it all the time from traders and trend followers who use an automated algo systematic way of trading.

One must realize as I realized…that we do not know the future….that anything can happen….that we must be consistent when following an automated systematic trend following system.

Once you start second guessing your system you are doomed. You need to internalize that your profits are made over a very long serious of trades over years.

Try to keep this in mind when trend following.

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Consistency in your Trading

I speak to many people who want to become “better” trend followers or traders. I see the same thing over and over again. The more complicated the better….Always striving for the perfect system or indicator. Trying to avoid trades that do not work…ie Losing

The only way to reach any kind of durable market success is through losing. Realize this and accept this.

The simpler the trend following methodology, the better the chance of long term compounding of money. Nothing optimized!

The real world is tough. We must be flexible in our expectations and rigid in our rules…

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Tough Year for Hedge Funds – 2.55% YTD

The fact that hedge funds are struggling goes to prove how tough trend following and all trading really is.

I report to Eureka hedge my trading results and received an email from them this morning.

What stood out in this report was Long/Short Equity traders and CTAs ( Commodity trading Advisors) had double digit returns. I am a CTA and the last several years have been the toughest for me since 1994.

That is why you need a complete trading plan and the fortitude to stick with it…

Hedge funds up 1.52%, posting fifth consecutive month of gains – 2.55% year-to-date

Index Flash Update – 10 August 2016

Hedge funds were up during the month of July, gaining 1.52%1 while underlying markets as represented by the MSCI World Index (Local) were up 4.18%. Roughly 73% of the underlying constituent hedge funds for the Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index were in positive territory this month thanks to a broad-based global equity market rally and an improving investor risk appetite post-Brexit. Latin American managers led performance among regional mandates this month, and were up 4.30% while relative value managers topped the table across strategies, gaining 2.92% over the same period.

As of 2016 year-to-date, hedge funds gained 2.55% with over half of managers posting positive year-to-date returns. Roughly 12% of hedge fund managers have posted year-to-date returns in excess of 10% over the past seven months, down from 16% of funds over the same period last year. One-third of these funds posting double digit gains are long/short equity mandated while another quarter of them are CTA/managed futures mandated hedge funds.

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High Tight Flag Pattern Failure – Trend Following Cotton

Trend following patterns work and sometimes as in the case of Cotton, they don’t. I was in this trend following trade and as always I temper my expectations. Anything can happen when trend following. I had very nice profit in this position and noted a high tight flag. This is a rare trend following pattern. It led me to think potentially that the cotton move could be like it was in 2010. That was a massive move….however as much is past performance is not indicative of future performance, I received an email from my trade desk that I was filled and out of this position.

Point…
Anything can and will happen with Trend following. Trade with hard stops. Understand that trend following is a grind. Most of the time you will be giving back profits…However if you can stay in the game or marathon…potentially you stand the ability to compound money…

cotton

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE (“FOREX”) IS SUBSTANTIAL.

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XTrade Europe Advises on Picking a Brokerage Company

It is not always easy to find a perfect broker such as XTrade Europe – a company which would provide us with everything for successful online investing. It is a problem that bothers both people who are about to open their first account and those who want to explore different options and start working with another company.

Here are a few tips that might be useful to all people interested in online trading:

Commissions and fees

It is not a secret that people choose XTrade Europe and other brokerage companies based on the commissions and fees. Their motto is: cheaper is better! However, this is not always true. In fact, it is not true at all. The fact that some companies have low fees does not tell us anything about the quality of services that these firms provide. Most of the time, a low commission comes together with a poor customer service and support. In some cases, you will not be able to find anyone who would help you or give you an advice. This is why choosing a company based only on trading expenses is not the best strategy. Of course, this does not mean we should not check these expenses at all and see whether they are suitable for us.

Fees ones more

Trading commissions are just a tip of the iceberg. Besides these usual fees, we must count on many other expenses when using a brokerage services, including fees for inactive accounts and transferring money to our bank account. In addition, we will have to pay every time when our balance drops below minimum deposit. All these costs should be taken into consideration when choosing our online broker.

Deposit

Almost every company has different rules when it comes to initial deposit that has to be paid before we even open our trading account. Nobody can tell you which amount would be the perfect for you. You must know how much you are ready to pay and what amount would perfectly fits you. So, think twice before you make final decision.

Online support

Here is the thing: you just cannot survive in the world of online trading if you rely only on you individual efforts. Even if you have a superb trading skills, you will get in trouble sooner or later. And this is the moment when online support and customer services become extremely important. Take your time to check whether you broker takes care about customers or not. It is just not the same if you talk with a machine or a real person. Companies like XTrade Europe have built their good reputation thanks to their commitment to clients. This is definitely an issue that should be your priority when searching for a brokerage company you want to trade with.

Trading strategy and tools

Although the goal of online investing is always the same- earning as much money as possible, ways of doing this varies depending on the situation. This is why quality of a trading platform provided by our broker is extremely important for successful trading. You should check why almost all experienced traders say XTrade Europe has one of the best platforms we can find these days.

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The Hardest Part is Making Profits and Keeping Them !!!

Firstly every trader knows it is not not easy to generate profits out of the market. The reality of trend following is that most trades do not work. Do not work simply means just that…..they do not work…of course you did not realize a profit, you actually lost money. However one must think in terms of positive and simply the trade did not work.

Ok…so we get it….most trades do not work…and then there are the few that do work. These are the ones that create our profits. However these profits can easily slip away in trend following with trading with stops. More so I have seen repeatedly in my mentoring, is once some profits are generated, more money is thrown at the market. Invariably after a nice run up, there is the proverbial draw down…..

There goes the profits.

I have seen countless times both in leverage ETFs and Futures, too much concentration, too large of position size….or simply trading without stops. These all lead to disaster!!!

The fact it is not easily to pull money out of the markets…Keeping the profits are even harder.

That is why education is paramount

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Why are Smart Investors Telling Us to Sell?

There are gurus who over the years have made significant wealth by trading the stock market. However I have seen gurus come and go. More so beyond skeptical when George Soros said to sell the GBP before BREXIT and he in turn bought GBP….Was this to create a short squeeze?

Today we have guru after guru calling a top with fear and brimstone yet the trend from a trend following stand point is up.

Jeff Gundlach
“Sell everything. Nothing here looks good.”
Stan Druckenmiller
“Get out of the stock market.”
George Soros
“The billionaire hedge fund founder and philanthropist recently directed a series of big, bearish investments, according to people close to the matter.”
Carl Icahn
“I don’t think you can have (near) zero interest rates for much longer without having these bubbles explode on you” while also saying it’s difficult to assess when exactly that might occur.
Bill Gross
“I don’t like bonds. I don’t like most stocks. I don’t like private equity.”

The answer…Have a trading plan do not rely on anyone but yourself!!

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