Commodity Trading & Trend Following

Everyone seems to want to know when they can pick up all the bargains in the market. Seems that risk is a forgotten word.There are those that think that this is simply a BEAR Market rally. There have to be reactions and markets do not go down forever. The truth is only time will tell. The fact is the Dow rose 39.51 points, or 0.5%, to 8017.59, its highest close since Feb. 9. The Nasdaq has risen 25% during its four-week winning streak.

There seems to be tug of war between those who ” Predict” this harsh Recession will be over this quarter or next year and those that react to the economic situation. Truthfully no one knows how long this Recession will last or when it will be over. The fact is those more money has been lost recently trying to call a bottom. The next reality is that there is further evidence that there is a deepening of the slowdown not just in the US but from around the world.

The FED and the TARP program has lent or guaranteed almost $12.8 trillion if you add it all up. Putting this into perspective this massive sum is virtually approaching the total GDP or everything produced in the US last year. The nationג€™s gross domestic product was $14.2 trillion in 2008.

Pretty strong words were used by the prime minister of the Czech Republic,Mirek Topolanek regarding Obama’s economic plans. Mr. Topolanek holds the EU’s six-month rotating presidency. He believes that the European Union governments must avoid the type of spending ( $2 Trillion dollars) to get out of the current recession ( Depression?). His views were not widely accepted by his colleagues. Is it that Mr. Topolanek is just going through a rough time personally since he was ousted by his own parliament after a losing a no confidence vote on Tuesday?

The question is are we just hearing political banter or should we believe the Chinese? Several weeks ago Premier Wen Jiabao called on March 13 for the U.S. ג€œto guarantee the safety of Chinaג€™s assets. The fact that even buying and holding US Treasuries the Chinese are losing money as their currency the Yuan has appreciated versus the US Dollar.
All the while, yesterday Obama came out with support of the US Dollar and to reply to the Chinese he stated, ג€œI donג€™t believe there is the need for a global currency,ג€. The obvious fact is that the Chinese are nervous holding US Dollars. Why shouldn’t they be after last weeks $1 Trillion dollar printing party. I think many of us are nervous holding dollars and maybe rightfully so. But, lets put in the reality. Maybe the US Dollar is the best of the worst. The European economies are in bad shape. They seem slow to react to the current reality.

The innocence and knowledge of a child is sometimes much more clearer than our insights. My young daughter asked me what comes after a Trillion dollars. My son answered a Zillion. I had to interject and add that does not exist ( yet). Maybe U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will invite a new number the way he is going.

Very clearly there was extreme dissatisfaction over big bonuses paid by firms bailed out with U.S. taxpayer money. Is it hard to understand why when people are losing their jobs, houses or even hope. It is ironic when a salary of $100k is considered a great salary for someone in Iowa and bonuses in the $100 of thousands or even millions were given to incompentents.

Take out your feelings on Ben with the bernanke squeeze doll.

Do you remember the statement.. It is the economy,Stupid…Maybe the same words are effecting President Obama’s approval ratings. They are slipping as Americans are worried about the economy. Obamaג€™s approval rating slipped to 59 percent from 64 percent last month. All in all Americans still generally support Obamaג€™s handling of the economy, more questions are cropping up. One of the most pertinet was yesterdays AIG debacle. Obama is scrambling to assure Americans he is extremely aware of public outrage over taxpayer-backed bonuses for AIG executives.

Since we the taxpayers own approx 80% of AIG shouldn’t we have some say in their affairs. As 80% owners should we approve payouts of $450 million in bonuses for employees in the unit that lost $40.5 billion last year. These employees were responsible for the virtual capitulation of AIG. Just think how logical this is. These people destroyed not only a company and all the lives of people dedicated to the company’s success but now to reward them.