Commodity Trading & Trend Following

The million dollar question what is real? The rate of inflation or a new stock market rally?
We are bombarded on CNBC or Bloomberg with one speaker after another stating… No INFLATION! The Rate of Inflation is nothing…or the average inflation will be minus x %. At the same time we hear speakers after speakers [...]

How many Stock market Bears are itching to go short the stock market index? Probably too many to count. However regardless of all the fundamental reasons and thoughts to blindly go short the stock market index, this is not prudent. One could possibly listen to Paul Tudor Jones who thinks this is a bear market [...]

There was a very interesting article in the Wall Street Journal this morning stating that Asset allocation has failed.
wall street journal article
The article states ” The financial crisis has sent many financial advisers, academics and investors back to the drawing board”. What I do not understand is how can financial professionals still overlook commodity trading [...]

Is the SP 500 bear market rally ending?
Read an interesting post this am. Glenn Neely from the NEoWave Institute a well known Elliott Wave trader came out with a call that the S&P 500 is forming a major top in June, which will be followed by a large decline, eventually pushing the stock market to [...]

The million dollar question is have we avoided a 1929 stock market crash scenario or was this just a bear market rally. Nouriel Roubini who called the stock market crash several years ago. Now he is believes we are just a Bear Market Rally.

So far we have not seen anything like the stock market crash of 1929. The stock market crash of 2008 has been unforgiving. Did we just experience a Bear Market Rally? Is the SP running out of gas? Intel Corp said it faces a ג€œfragileג€ economy. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all are stepping up foreclosures on delinquent homeowners. So much for the Obama administration’s housing-rescue plan. Will the unemployment rate exceed 10%? The volatility has been great, stock investing has been tough. Is there another Black Tuesday lurking on the horizon?

Everyone seems to want to know when they can pick up all the bargains in the market. Seems that risk is a forgotten word.There are those that think that this is simply a BEAR Market rally. There have to be reactions and markets do not go down forever. The truth is only time will tell. The fact is the Dow rose 39.51 points, or 0.5%, to 8017.59, its highest close since Feb. 9. The Nasdaq has risen 25% during its four-week winning streak.

One reads the papers and all are claiming Inflation is non existent. Well, maybe for the short run it might be. Looking back at the Great Depression of 1929 there are many similarities and inflation could rise it’s ugly head.
In the midst of the Great Depression there was a strong upward trend in commodity prices [...]

As GM Goes, So Goes The Nation famous remark by Charles Wilson is as appropriate now as it was in 1953. Charles Wilson declared before Congress that what was good for the country was good for GM and vice versa. Does Gm’s rise to power and decline towards insolvency parallel the rise and fall of the US? GM’s market cap reached approx $50 billion in 2000. Currently its market capitalization dropped below $1 billion to levels last seen during the 1920’s.

They don’t call Nouriel Roubini Doctor Doom for nothing. Roubini is anything but real. Nouriel Roubini has vast experience as well is currently a New York University professor. He was one of the few who predicted last yearג€™s economic crisis. Roubini sounded a warning that many investors who recently participated in this great rally ( one of the best since 1987) should pay attention to.