Commodity Trading & Trend Following

You can make both ways when you trend follow. You want to be long in a bull market and short in a bear market. There are tools and trading tips I teach you in order to know where you are located at any time. With the algorithmic trading methods you will have an exact plan [...]

The fact that stocks are now back to November 2009 levels demonstrates my point I make about compounding money over time. Two years have been lost to stock market investors. I have no idea if a bottom is in or not. More so, Do not think that trend following is a piece of cake either. [...]

It seemed like the perfect storm, it seemed so obvious that a Bear Market will occur. There were record foreclosures, record falling home prices, record European budget deficits, fear of the implosion of the EU and the possibility of a U.S. dollar crash.
Contrary to all the bad news the stock market has gained 9.8 [...]

The proverbial question is we in a V shaped recovery or a Bear Market Rally. Without predicting (One word every true trend follower hates) there are signs becoming apparent the stock market rally from March might be coming to an end. There are technical indicators which are pointing to weakness as well as recent economic [...]

Everyone seems to want to know when they can pick up all the bargains in the market. Seems that risk is a forgotten word.There are those that think that this is simply a BEAR Market rally. There have to be reactions and markets do not go down forever. The truth is only time will tell. The fact is the Dow rose 39.51 points, or 0.5%, to 8017.59, its highest close since Feb. 9. The Nasdaq has risen 25% during its four-week winning streak.

As GM Goes, So Goes The Nation famous remark by Charles Wilson is as appropriate now as it was in 1953. Charles Wilson declared before Congress that what was good for the country was good for GM and vice versa. Does Gm’s rise to power and decline towards insolvency parallel the rise and fall of the US? GM’s market cap reached approx $50 billion in 2000. Currently its market capitalization dropped below $1 billion to levels last seen during the 1920’s.

There seems to be tug of war between those who ” Predict” this harsh Recession will be over this quarter or next year and those that react to the economic situation. Truthfully no one knows how long this Recession will last or when it will be over. The fact is those more money has been lost recently trying to call a bottom. The next reality is that there is further evidence that there is a deepening of the slowdown not just in the US but from around the world.

Pretty strong words were used by the prime minister of the Czech Republic,Mirek Topolanek regarding Obama’s economic plans. Mr. Topolanek holds the EU’s six-month rotating presidency. He believes that the European Union governments must avoid the type of spending ( $2 Trillion dollars) to get out of the current recession ( Depression?). His views were not widely accepted by his colleagues. Is it that Mr. Topolanek is just going through a rough time personally since he was ousted by his own parliament after a losing a no confidence vote on Tuesday?

The question is are we just hearing political banter or should we believe the Chinese? Several weeks ago Premier Wen Jiabao called on March 13 for the U.S. ג€œto guarantee the safety of Chinaג€™s assets. The fact that even buying and holding US Treasuries the Chinese are losing money as their currency the Yuan has appreciated versus the US Dollar.
All the while, yesterday Obama came out with support of the US Dollar and to reply to the Chinese he stated, ג€œI donג€™t believe there is the need for a global currency,ג€. The obvious fact is that the Chinese are nervous holding US Dollars. Why shouldn’t they be after last weeks $1 Trillion dollar printing party. I think many of us are nervous holding dollars and maybe rightfully so. But, lets put in the reality. Maybe the US Dollar is the best of the worst. The European economies are in bad shape. They seem slow to react to the current reality.

The innocence and knowledge of a child is sometimes much more clearer than our insights. My young daughter asked me what comes after a Trillion dollars. My son answered a Zillion. I had to interject and add that does not exist ( yet). Maybe U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will invite a new number the way he is going.