Commodity Trading & Trend Following

Where does One Learn How to Trade Commodities Successfully?
The internet is full of get rich quick schemes on how to trade forex or SP futures contracts. The reality is most of these if not all are scams. There are no easy ways to learn how to trade successfully. Trading commodities successfully takes years and much [...]

It seems the newspapers always have reasons why markets moved either up or down. People feel better when they have reasons. Had an interesting discussion with my wife regarding this. She told me the reason that silver went down( according to the newspaper she read) was because China was raising interest rates. My response was [...]

One of the most important attributes of commodity trading and trend following is ” TIME”. Really time is such an important ingredient of successful commodity trading. Too many are focused on trying to find that ” perfect indicator or system”. What commodity traders need to focus on in my opinion is a robust mechanical trading [...]

There is always talk about correlations among commodity trading advisors and even more so among trend followers. I want to point out clearly there are correlations however there are differences & even reasons to have a basket of commodity trading advisors. If & when there are trends it is hard to imagine that all trend [...]

One would easily think that commodity trading advisors are making fortunes these days between the rising costs of food prices and crude oil. Well I have bad news this is not the case ( at least maybe yet). Actually only several commodity trading advisors that I follow are up double digits, Drury Capital and Dunn [...]

Too many people who invest with Commodity trading Advisors think it is Easy!.
The truth could not be further removed. Too many think they deserve to get consistent 20-30% returns year in and year out. Once the Inevitable draw down occurs these investors get shocked and some even run for the door.
Trend following [...]

Good investors invest in people, not historical performance.
They know how to identify traits that will lead to excellent performance in the future, and they know how to identify traits that are indicative of trading ability.
This is the best way to overcome random effects and just plain luck.
Performance can be attributed to commodity trading advisors [...]

After Fridays ( relief) rally is it safe to come out and play or invest? Probably not, As a trend follower the trend is still down on the SP 500. Even with Friday’s nice rally, the index is still below the 50 day moving average as well as most importantly 200 moving average.
Nothing has [...]

Below is a short list of returns for 2009 Returns for Commodity trading advisors that are trend followers
Organization / Fund Dec. Return YTD * AUM **
Abraham Trading1
-3.98% -5.56% $482M
Aspect Capital2
-5.80% -11.25% $3568M
Chesapeake Capital3
2.83% 0.40% $1046M
Clarke Capital4
-11.04% -29.78% $23M
Drury Capital5
0.08% 9.02% $151M
Dunn Capital6
-5.83% -0.57% $220M
Eckhardt Trading7
-5.95% -4.80% $445M
EMC Capital8
-2.00% -14.35% $212M
Hawksbill Capital9
-14.50% -15.32% $50M
Hoffman Asset Management 19
% -4.83% $26M
Hyman Beck & Co.10
-1.30% 3.96% $462M
JWH & Co.11
-10.87% -24.06% $106M
Man AHL Diversified12
-6.89% -16.95% $20,400M
Millburn Ridgefield13
1.48% -7.33% $1,095M
Rabar Market Research14
-0.48% 6.99% $222M
Saxon Investment15
-0.18% 10.37% $10M
Superfund16
-8.86% -29.46% $159M
Transtrend17
-3.21% -8.36% $107M
Winton Capital18
-2.45% -4.63% $12,650M
Notes:
* YTD: Year-To-Date performance through Dec 2009.
** AUM: [...]

Professional Commodity Traders
When you watched the last Super Bowl game did you see how the Pittsburg Steelers overcame the Arizona Cardinals? I was impressed by the professional way they performed. They did not beat themselves by making mistakes. A professional regardless if in sports or in any field makes fewer mistakes than others. This is [...]