Commodity Trading & Trend Following

Maybe it is me but will all these huge numbers…a billion dollars here…a trillion dollars there.. my head was starting to hurt. I do not think I am alone with these worries… except for an ostrich with it’s head in the sand. I would believe that most people would agree they have a hard time comprehending the actual numbers involved.

One reads the papers and all are claiming Inflation is non existent. Well, maybe for the short run it might be. Looking back at the Great Depression of 1929 there are many similarities and inflation could rise it’s ugly head.
In the midst of the Great Depression there was a strong upward trend in commodity prices [...]

The FED and the TARP program has lent or guaranteed almost $12.8 trillion if you add it all up. Putting this into perspective this massive sum is virtually approaching the total GDP or everything produced in the US last year. The nationג€™s gross domestic product was $14.2 trillion in 2008.

Hopefully more than political back standing will be accomplished at next weeks upcoming G20 Summit.The issues could not be more serious when the world’s most powerful leaders meet in London next week. Millions of jobs have already vanished and millions more could go as the global economy faces its biggest downturn since the Great Depression. Fear has gripped virtually everyone country and every citizen of the planet. If the summit is not successful then obviously there will be a greater sense of drift and crisis.
Yet there those, whose great hope that the summit will bring of the beginning of the end of the crisis as well hope that the world leaders were able to galvanize a new direction and a new authority.

Pretty strong words were used by the prime minister of the Czech Republic,Mirek Topolanek regarding Obama’s economic plans. Mr. Topolanek holds the EU’s six-month rotating presidency. He believes that the European Union governments must avoid the type of spending ( $2 Trillion dollars) to get out of the current recession ( Depression?). His views were not widely accepted by his colleagues. Is it that Mr. Topolanek is just going through a rough time personally since he was ousted by his own parliament after a losing a no confidence vote on Tuesday?

The question is are we just hearing political banter or should we believe the Chinese? Several weeks ago Premier Wen Jiabao called on March 13 for the U.S. ג€œto guarantee the safety of Chinaג€™s assets. The fact that even buying and holding US Treasuries the Chinese are losing money as their currency the Yuan has appreciated versus the US Dollar.
All the while, yesterday Obama came out with support of the US Dollar and to reply to the Chinese he stated, ג€œI donג€™t believe there is the need for a global currency,ג€. The obvious fact is that the Chinese are nervous holding US Dollars. Why shouldn’t they be after last weeks $1 Trillion dollar printing party. I think many of us are nervous holding dollars and maybe rightfully so. But, lets put in the reality. Maybe the US Dollar is the best of the worst. The European economies are in bad shape. They seem slow to react to the current reality.

The innocence and knowledge of a child is sometimes much more clearer than our insights. My young daughter asked me what comes after a Trillion dollars. My son answered a Zillion. I had to interject and add that does not exist ( yet). Maybe U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will invite a new number the way he is going.

Very clearly there was extreme dissatisfaction over big bonuses paid by firms bailed out with U.S. taxpayer money. Is it hard to understand why when people are losing their jobs, houses or even hope. It is ironic when a salary of $100k is considered a great salary for someone in Iowa and bonuses in the $100 of thousands or even millions were given to incompentents.

Nouriel Roubini and Nassim Taleb (”Dr Doom and the Black Swan”) discuss the crisis –and what to do about it.

In less than twenty-four hours the price of Gold climbed $65 and the price of Silver $1.20. Considering the announcement by the Fed, one has to wonder why the moves were not bigger. The Fed stated it is going to ג€œincrease the sizeג€ of its balance sheet, that means it is going to put the printing presses on full octane, maximum performance. What this really means that in approx 6 months or so there will be an additional $1,050,000,000 in circulation. The ABCs of economics are when this happens Inflation raises it’s ugly head.