Commodity Trading & Trend Following

Once you thought it was safe to get back in the water ..it isn’t..as they would say in the Jaws movie. A scary fact is evolving. Freddie Mac said November delinquencies on single-family residences rose to 3.72% from 3.54% in October and 1.52% a year earlier.The kicker is this more than double worse than last [...]

The FED and the TARP program has lent or guaranteed almost $12.8 trillion if you add it all up. Putting this into perspective this massive sum is virtually approaching the total GDP or everything produced in the US last year. The nationג€™s gross domestic product was $14.2 trillion in 2008.

Very clearly there was extreme dissatisfaction over big bonuses paid by firms bailed out with U.S. taxpayer money. Is it hard to understand why when people are losing their jobs, houses or even hope. It is ironic when a salary of $100k is considered a great salary for someone in Iowa and bonuses in the $100 of thousands or even millions were given to incompentents.

What words can describe the current situation? Fear…Dispair… Disbelief..Hopelessness…? I am sure not everyone feels these feelings…but I would tend to believe a great many do. People are afraid of losing their jobs and with good reason. Many people are only a paycheck or two away from default. The mood of the country is surely down. Amplifying the mood has been all the expressed anger about bailing out banks and financial institutions that made poor decisions. Putting salt on the wound was the bonus-paying spree to the incompetents at insurance giant AIG and Fannie. Now billions of dollars are being promised to the auto industry. Where does it end? Will this really help the economy or is it another bailout where those who asked for bailouts came in their private jets.

The flood of US dollars seems to be coming, as well as inflation. The Federal Reserve started buying massive amounts of Treasuries and is gearing up its purchases of mortgage debt. The Fed will buy as much as $300 billion in long-term Treasurys in the next six months. It will increase it’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to $1.25 trillion, up from $500 billion. The printing presses got an injection of high octane yesterday. The FED will buy or lend against everything from corporate debt, mortgages and consumer loans to government bonds.

It is almost like the movie Jaws, once you think you can go back in the water the Great White Shark appears again. We are experiencing virtually the same situation in bonuses paid out for ineptitude. It seemed very clear there was a backlash…an outrage at the bonuses given to AIG employees who single handly destroyed a major company and almost the the US economy now Fannie Mae is giving bonuses as well. The difference is the linguistics. They are calling them “Retention Payouts”. Unfortunately failure is being rewarded again. I forgot the shares of Fannie Mae only went from $35.50 down to yesterdays .80 cents. That is a great reason to retain these employees.