Commodity Trading & Trend Following

Walking away from Mortgages
It seems now almost acceptable that Americans can walk away from their mortgages. Why not? So many are upside down, owing more money on a house than the house is actually worth.
Many Americans are just walking away and renting virtually the same homes for half or a third [...]

Advanta the credit card issuer to so many small businesses filed for bankruptcy last Sunday. Advanta claims the recession caused so many of it’s customers to default. The question is ,What makes the other credit companies any different? Will there be other credit card companies going bankrupt? Putting everything into context Advanta has approx $2.7 [...]

Everyone seems to want to know when they can pick up all the bargains in the market. Seems that risk is a forgotten word.There are those that think that this is simply a BEAR Market rally. There have to be reactions and markets do not go down forever. The truth is only time will tell. The fact is the Dow rose 39.51 points, or 0.5%, to 8017.59, its highest close since Feb. 9. The Nasdaq has risen 25% during its four-week winning streak.

One reads the papers and all are claiming Inflation is non existent. Well, maybe for the short run it might be. Looking back at the Great Depression of 1929 there are many similarities and inflation could rise it’s ugly head.
In the midst of the Great Depression there was a strong upward trend in commodity prices [...]

There exist many similarities between the current economic debacle and the Great Depression of 1929 ( however we are not at 25% unemployment and many other aspects).

There seems to be tug of war between those who ” Predict” this harsh Recession will be over this quarter or next year and those that react to the economic situation. Truthfully no one knows how long this Recession will last or when it will be over. The fact is those more money has been lost recently trying to call a bottom. The next reality is that there is further evidence that there is a deepening of the slowdown not just in the US but from around the world.

The FED and the TARP program has lent or guaranteed almost $12.8 trillion if you add it all up. Putting this into perspective this massive sum is virtually approaching the total GDP or everything produced in the US last year. The nation’s gross domestic product was $14.2 trillion in 2008.

The innocence and knowledge of a child is sometimes much more clearer than our insights. My young daughter asked me what comes after a Trillion dollars. My son answered a Zillion. I had to interject and add that does not exist ( yet). Maybe U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will invite a new number the way he is going.

Very clearly there was extreme dissatisfaction over big bonuses paid by firms bailed out with U.S. taxpayer money. Is it hard to understand why when people are losing their jobs, houses or even hope. It is ironic when a salary of $100k is considered a great salary for someone in Iowa and bonuses in the $100 of thousands or even millions were given to incompentents.

A very interesting thing has been happening slowly slowly. Oil has started to rebound. Are we in store for more Peak Oil scares ( reality). Unfortunately I nor anyone knows where Oil is going. But what I do know is that Oil was one of the strongest commodity movers last week on a relative basis. From the lows of Feb 19th Oil has made a tremendous move. The question is will it continue? For the week Oil is up approx 10.7%. Seems that many are seeking reasons… maybe it was the result of the FED action and the fears of a weakened dollar or inflation. Reasons are redundant for traders. The fact is Oil moved. The next question is how to put on a low risk trade? As a Trend follower, one becomes interested but only if they can put on a low risk trade.