Commodity Trading & Trend Following

The innocence and knowledge of a child is sometimes much more clearer than our insights. My young daughter asked me what comes after a Trillion dollars. My son answered a Zillion. I had to interject and add that does not exist ( yet). Maybe U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will invite a new number the way he is going.

Very clearly there was extreme dissatisfaction over big bonuses paid by firms bailed out with U.S. taxpayer money. Is it hard to understand why when people are losing their jobs, houses or even hope. It is ironic when a salary of $100k is considered a great salary for someone in Iowa and bonuses in the $100 of thousands or even millions were given to incompentents.

A very interesting thing has been happening slowly slowly. Oil has started to rebound. Are we in store for more Peak Oil scares ( reality). Unfortunately I nor anyone knows where Oil is going. But what I do know is that Oil was one of the strongest commodity movers last week on a relative basis. From the lows of Feb 19th Oil has made a tremendous move. The question is will it continue? For the week Oil is up approx 10.7%. Seems that many are seeking reasons… maybe it was the result of the FED action and the fears of a weakened dollar or inflation. Reasons are redundant for traders. The fact is Oil moved. The next question is how to put on a low risk trade? As a Trend follower, one becomes interested but only if they can put on a low risk trade.

Unemployment is raising … we are at 7.5% ..when will it stop?